Magyar's victory in Hungary is better for Ukraine, but no global changes will occur

The victory of Péter Magyar and the Tisza Party in the Hungarian parliamentary elections has become one of the most significant political changes in Central Europe in recent years. For Ukraine, this means the end of an era of constant blackmail from Viktor Orbán's government, but not the arrival of an unconditional ally, UNN reports.

Magyar is much closer to the European Union than his predecessor, but at the same time remains a Hungarian national politician who puts the interests of his state first. That is why Kyiv should consider him not as a "friend of Ukraine," but as a pragmatic partner with whom agreements can be reached.

Who is Péter Magyar and why is his victory important?

Péter Magyar became the main challenge to Orbán's political system after many years of Fidesz party dominance. His victory was the result of the fatigue of a part of Hungarian society from corruption scandals, conflicts with Brussels, and economic problems.

Unlike Orbán, who for years built a model of confrontation with the EU, Magyar speaks of Hungary's return to the "core of Europe" - this is a key difference. For Ukraine, this is important for one reason: Budapest may cease to be the main internal blocker of European decisions regarding Kyiv.

Why this is a plus for Ukraine

Orbán regularly used the topic of Ukraine as a bargaining chip with Brussels: funding, sanctions, negotiation packages, EU accession. Magyar is unlikely to continue such a game in the same style. He is interested in restoring relations with the European Union and increasing funds for Hungary. This means fewer political blockades and fewer demonstrative scandals around Ukraine.

A more predictable partner

Orbán often acted sharply, emotionally, and situationally. Magyar appears to be a more systematic and predictable politician, which is no less important for diplomacy than sympathy, because it is easier to negotiate with a predictable government even on complex issues.

Even if Magyar does not become an anti-Russian politician, he is unlikely to copy Orbán's model of constant bowing to the Kremlin. This will reduce the toxicity of the Hungarian position within the EU and NATO.

But Magyar will not become an ally of Ukraine

It is important to avoid inflated expectations here. Magyar is not a pro-Ukrainian politician in the classical sense.

He has already made it clear that he does not support military aid to Ukraine, is skeptical about Ukraine's rapid accession to the EU, does not support drastic steps regarding NATO, and emphasizes the priority of Hungary's interests.

That is, instead of Orbán, who often acted according to Moscow's logic, Ukraine gets a neighbor who will act according to Budapest's logic. This is better, but not ideal.

Transcarpathia will remain the main point of conflict

The issue of the Hungarian minority in Transcarpathia is an internally politically sensitive issue for any government in Budapest. Not only Orbán used this topic - it has long been present on the Hungarian political agenda.

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Magyar is unlikely to abandon demands regarding the language or educational rights of Hungarians in Ukraine. Moreover, he may act softer in form, but just as tough in content.

What this means for Kyiv

Ukraine will have to look for compromise solutions:

• expansion of cultural programs;

• bilingual educational models where possible;

• guarantees of national minority rights within Ukrainian legislation;

• de-escalation of political tension without harming state interests.

This issue will not disappear with the change of government in Hungary.

Energy is another area of difficult negotiations

Hungary is heavily dependent on Russian energy resources. Even after the change of government, this dependence will not automatically disappear.

Magyar is unlikely to support sanctions that severely hit the Hungarian economy. He will likely demand: guarantees of alternative supplies, Hungary's participation in new energy projects, compensation from the EU, and a gradual, rather than radical, abandonment of Russian resources.

For Ukraine, this means that Budapest's position may become less toxic, but not completely rigid towards Moscow.

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Grain and farmers - the problem will not disappear

Any Hungarian government will protect its farmers. This also applies to Magyar.

Disputes over Ukrainian grain, transit, and agricultural competition may continue.

However, there is an important difference here: such issues are usually resolved technically - with quotas, control, logistics, and compensation. That is, it is a problem, but not a strategic threat.

Will he support Ukraine's accession to the EU?

Most likely - not in a quick format. Magyar may take the position of many European politicians - Ukraine has the prospect of membership, but accession is possible only after the war, reforms, and adaptation.

Magyar also stated that he would insist on consultations with Hungarian citizens or even a referendum. This is not necessarily an anti-Ukrainian position - rather internal politics.

The main difference from Orbán

Orbán often acted according to the logic of conflict, Magyar will likely act according to the logic of bargaining. For Ukraine, this is a huge difference. Because conflict blocks everything, and bargaining opens up space for negotiations.

What Ukraine should do

After Magyar's victory, Kyiv needs to quickly move from emotions to pragmatism.

Steps that can give Ukraine an advantage

Ukraine should launch a new dialogue on Transcarpathia, propose economic projects on the border, include Hungary in the future reconstruction logistics, work directly with Hungarian society, and remove the image of Ukraine as a "problem" for Budapest.

Péter Magyar's victory is a positive scenario for Ukraine, but not a triumph.

Kyiv gets not an ally, but a difficult but rational neighbor. Not a fan of Ukraine, but also not a politician who plays into the Kremlin's hands every week.

For Ukraine, this means the main thing - instead of a constant war with Budapest, there is a chance for normal negotiations, and in modern Europe, this is already a lot.

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