Ukraine fears it cannot rely on security guarantees from its allies in any potential peace deal, so it must be prepared to stand alone as a "steel porcupine" to ensure that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin does not return for a new attack, and "Ukraine's Plan B is to rely on itself," Politico reports, writes UNN.
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European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen last year called on Kyiv to turn the country "into a steel porcupine, indigestible for current and future aggressors."
This means a permanent massive army, significant investment in the latest drone and missile technologies, and domestic arms production.
"Ukraine has undergone a fundamental rethinking of what security guarantees mean and what they should be based on," said Alona Hetmanchuk, head of Ukraine's mission to NATO, in an interview. "Previously, the vision focused mainly on defense commitments provided by partners. However, today there is a clear understanding that the basis of any security guarantees must be Ukraine's army and its defense industry."
But for this, Ukraine, the publication writes, "needs to create a sustainable defense sector, reform its procurement systems, update its recruitment system, continue to improve drone technology, create long-range missiles, equip its armed forces with modern tanks, artillery and aircraft (Kyiv has outlined an agreement to purchase up to 150 Swedish-made Saab JAS-39E Gripen fighters) and receive billions in aid to build an army that Russia will be afraid to attack again."
Ukraine's future security "is, first of all, the sustainability of production," said Ihor Fedirko, executive director of the Ukrainian Association of Arms Manufacturers. "Not individual weapon systems and not one-time technological breakthroughs, but the ability of the defense industry to operate over time, under pressure, with a predictable volume of production," he pointed out.
Security guarantees are necessary, against the backdrop of US President Donald Trump ruling out Ukraine's desired option of an invitation to join NATO, which protects its members with Article 5 on collective defense, the publication writes.
"In addition to strong armed forces, Ukraine needs reliable security guarantees," NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said in Kyiv on Tuesday.
"But without NATO, Ukraine has to rely on individual agreements, which may not carry the same weight as alliance commitments. Kyiv is wary of such agreements, having been burned by promises made by the US and UK when Ukraine gave up its nuclear arsenal in 1994 – promises that proved empty," the publication says.
"Some European allies have announced that they will deploy troops to Ukraine once an agreement is reached. Troops on the ground, planes in the air, ships in the Black Sea. The United States will be the backstop," Rutte said, adding that the security promises were "solid."
But Russia is already signaling that it will oppose any security guarantees for Ukraine, the publication notes, citing Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
"Ukraine's main fears concern the reliability of Trump's promises, due to his abrupt policy changes – from wanting to annex Greenland to doubting the value of NATO allies and forging warm ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin," the publication says.
"Will Trump start a war with Russia over Ukraine? Absolutely not. Will Trump impose sanctions on Russia for violating any ceasefire? Very unlikely," wrote Timothy Ash, an analyst who studies Russia and Ukraine.
Given that any security guarantees look shaky, Ukraine's Plan B is to rely on itself
"The longer the war lasts, the more Ukrainians are convinced that they must rely primarily on themselves," Hetmanchuk said. "This reflects both disappointment with previous security commitments made to Ukraine and skepticism about the prospects of NATO membership, as well as growing confidence in Ukraine's own ability to resist the enemy."
Building defense
A key element of future deterrence is a large army, the publication writes.
During peace talks, Ukraine insisted on maintaining an army of 800,000 soldiers.
According to Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov last month, 2 million Ukrainians are currently wanted for draft evasion, while 200,000 soldiers have deserted. If a ceasefire does occur, many soldiers currently serving will want to demobilize, the publication writes.
"This means a huge and expensive effort to create and maintain a large peacetime army that will have to be organized and properly paid. For this, Ukraine needs to improve military training at all levels, as well as transform its organizational and staff structure," said Taras Chmut, a Ukrainian military analyst and head of the "Come Back Alive" charitable foundation for military assistance.
Fedorov promised large-scale digitalization and other reforms. "Our goal is to transform the system: to carry out military reform, improve front-line infrastructure, eradicate lies and corruption, and promote a new culture of leadership and trust so that those who achieve real results are rewarded and have opportunities for growth."
Kostiantyn Nemichyev, deputy commander of the Kraken Drone Systems Regiment of the Third Army Corps, "called for changes in recruit training and enhanced education for officers and sergeants, given that they are the backbone of the army," the publication writes.
"A person must understand that they are trained to fight and be ready for it. And commanders must have leadership qualities... and then people will not desert in such numbers," he said.
Deadly drones
According to the publication, the country claims that Russia loses about 35,000 people every month, mostly due to Ukrainian drones. This potential, the publication notes, must be strengthened to prevent another Russian attack.
Fedorov said that Ukraine has created a drone market, a drone fleet, missiles, electronic warfare systems, ammunition, and interceptors. "But it is impossible to fight with new technologies while relying on an old organizational structure."
In 2025, the Ministry of Defense signed contracts for 4.5 million FPV drones and spent more than 110 billion hryvnias (2.1 billion euros) on drone-related procurements, three times more than the previous year.
"In the field of drones, electronic warfare, ammunition, and strike systems, production is already measured in hundreds and thousands of units. At this stage, the key task is stability and quality control from batch to batch, ensuring uninterrupted operation of production lines or deterioration of performance," Fedirko said.
"Ukraine is also developing its own missiles; if it has enough of them, it can threaten devastating strikes on Russian oil refineries, infrastructure, and military targets if Moscow attacks again," the publication writes.
Previous promises by the Ukrainian defense company Fire Point to produce about 200 Flamingo FP-5 missiles per month, each with a 1150-kilogram warhead and a range of 3000 kilometers, have not materialized, although some have been used to hit Russian targets, the publication notes.
"But Ukraine has other cruise missiles and long-range drones that can hit targets deep inside Russia. It is also working on a tactical ballistic missile with a range of 500 km, carrying a 200 kg warhead, together with the UK," the publication says.
All this, it is noted, requires a powerful defense industry and sound public finances.
Last year, Ukrainian defense companies had the capacity to produce equipment worth about $35 billion, but the government, suffering from limited funds, was only able to sign contracts worth about $12 billion, Fedirko said.
"Up to 60 percent of capacity remains underutilized. Without long-term contracts, predictable funding, protected production sites, automation where possible, and an internal testing base, serial production cannot be sustained," he said.
In addition to equipping its own armed forces, Ukraine hopes to export weapons, which is complicated by current wartime regulations.
New EU defense spending initiatives, such as the €150 billion SAFE "arms credit" program, are open to Ukrainian industry. The bloc also plans to provide Ukraine with a €90 billion loan, two-thirds of which will be directed to defense.
Legally binding security agreements with the United States and European states, as well as the potential presence of multinational "coalition of the willing" forces, are important issues in ongoing peace negotiations, the publication writes.
"However, they are largely seen as a complement to Ukraine's own army, not a replacement," Hetmanchuk said.
For Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the publication indicates, this means building up Ukraine's own defense capabilities to deter Russia.
"With such a neighbor, Ukrainians must be equally effective masters of their state's defense so that Ukraine is always independent and free from Russia."
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