Trump vs. Harris: what the polls say about the US presidential race
Kyiv • UNN
According to polls, Donald Trump leads with 47% to Kamala Harris' 45% in a potential presidential race. Harris is performing better than Biden against Trump in some recent polls.
Donald Trump, the US presidential candidate from the Republican Party, is ahead of US Vice President Kamala Harris, who was endorsed by President Joe Biden after announcing his withdrawal from the race, by 2 points, The Hill writes, citing the latest average of polls, writes UNN.
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According to a composite of national Trump-Harris polls, we're talking about 47 percent to 45 percent. That's about the same as Trump's lead over Biden - by 2.5 points, with 46 percent support versus the incumbent's 43.5 percent support.
With independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. included, Trump boasts a 6-point lead over Harris, with support of 43 percent to 37 percent, while Kennedy has 6 percent.
Favorability for the U.S. vice president is 38 percent, slightly lower than Biden (41 percent).
"The favorability of her nationally matches the favorability of Biden - that's not good," said Scott Tranter, director of data science at Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), a week before Biden's departure was announced. - "But her advantage is that she doesn't have all the baggage that Biden has, and voters are going to take a fresh look at her.
Trump's average 2-point advantage over Harris has dropped markedly from about 8 points at the beginning of the year, and other recent polls give her supporters some reason for hope.
In an Economist/YouGov poll conducted in mid-July, about 8 in 10 Democrats said they approve of Harris becoming the nominee if Biden leaves, and just over a quarter said they think she has a better chance of beating Trump than Biden.
A CBS News poll released last week showed Harris performing better than Biden against Trump, with Harris trailing by 3 points and Biden trailing by 5 points.
A CNN poll released after the first presidential debate, in which Biden's disappointing performance renewed talk of eliminating him from the running, showed Harris closer to Trump than Biden. She was just 2 points behind the former president, with Biden trailing by 6 points.
In a poll released earlier this month, Democratic pollster Bendixen & Amandi Inc. estimated the vice president is ahead of Trump by 1 point.
Harris is best positioned to take over Biden's campaign apparatus and the Democratic National Committee's (DNC) fundraising system without undue legal complexities, strategists say, and her agenda is already clearly aligned with Biden's.
The vice president is also 59, more than 20 years younger than Biden and is a black woman - qualities that may appeal to key demographics among the Democratic base.
At the same time, hypothetical Trump-Harris polls in individual states point to an uphill battle. Biden fell behind Trump in several key battlegrounds before dropping out of the race, and the latest numbers suggest Harris will face a similar.
According to DDHQ averages, Trump boasts a lead of about 9 points in Nevada, 7 points in Arizona, and 6 points in Georgia.
Trump is up 4 points in Pennsylvania, 1 point in Wisconsin and less than half a point in Michigan, and Harris is ahead by 3 points in Virginia.
But overall, however, polling data testing the Harris-Trump contest remains sparse, both nationally and at the state level, and these averages are based on six or fewer polls in each state.
Attention has already shifted to who might join Harris as her vice presidential nominee - and while it wasn't expected that Trump's choice for vice president would have a big impact on voters, the decision could potentially have a bigger impact on Harris' candidacy.
Harris, to be officially endorsed as a candidate, must now win the support of the more than 3,800 delegates Biden has won throughout the primary process, amid the party's push toward the Democratic National Convention, set for August in Chicago.
