Russian security forces reject peace talks and demand intensification of war in Ukraine - ISW

High-ranking Russian security and military officials are in favor of escalating hostilities in Ukraine, rejecting the possibility of negotiations. This is stated in a report by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), UNN reports .

Details

ISW analysts note that Russian security forces consider it necessary to intensify military operations in Ukraine rather than seek a solution to the war through negotiations. 

The Russians recognize that their troops are not achieving significant territorial gains proportional to the losses of manpower and equipment. Nevertheless, the Russian military command continues to suffer significant losses of personnel in exchange for tactical, but not operational, gains.

In December 2024, the average daily advance of Russian troops slowed to about nine square kilometers after three months of territorial gains and significant personnel losses in September, October, and November. At the same time, the Russian military command may be less inclined than Vladimir Putin to tolerate such high casualties if the pace of advance continues to slow

Nevertheless, Russian security and military officials are not ready to end the war because of these losses. Instead, they are calling on Putin to step up the war effort, suggesting partial conscription of the reserve, presumably to fill the battlefield with manpower and equipment.

Key findings:

• Western partners reaffirmed their support for Ukraine and their commitment to the development of its defense industry during a meeting of the Contact Group on Ukraine's Defense at Ramstein Air Base in Germany on January 9. They also announced new military assistance packages.
• Russian elites and senior security officials are reportedly growing increasingly frustrated with Vladimir Putin's handling of the war with half-measures and concerned about the duration of the “conflict.” Senior security officials believe that Russia should intensify military operations in Ukraine instead of seeking peace talks.
• However, this assessment is wrong, as Russia's main problem in the war is its inability to regain maneuverability on the battlefield, not a lack of manpower. This is the key factor holding back Russia's advance.
• According to a report by Medusa, Russian security forces, like Putin himself, are not currently interested in a peaceful resolution of the conflict.
• A Russian opposition publication reported that a torture center for Ukrainian prisoners of war and civilians had been set up in a detention center in Taganrog (Voronezh region).
• The UN condemned the increase in the number of executions of Ukrainian prisoners of war in Russia.
• On January 9, the Armenian government approved a bill that launches the country's accession to the EU.
• On the frontline, Russian troops advanced near Borova, Pokrovsk and in the Kursk region, while Ukrainian troops gained success near Sudzha.
• Russian officials continue to emphasize the Kremlin's intention to further militarize the government and society in the long term.

Recall

Russian troops have begun using fiber-optic drones to counter Ukrainian electronic warfare systems. Such drones are slower and less maneuverable, but effectively bypass electronic warfare systems.