Politico: Trump seeks to use peace talks on Russia's war against Ukraine to counter China
Kyiv • UNN
The Trump administration aims to end the war in Ukraine to distance Russia from Beijing. The strategy involves economic incentives for Moscow and a shift in the balance of power.
The Trump administration believes that encouraging Russia to end the war in Ukraine could ultimately shift the world order away from China, Politico reports, UNN writes.
President Donald Trump has often annoyed European allies with his outspoken pleas to Russian President Vladimir Putin and harsh words for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. But behind this apparent imbalance lies a long-term strategic goal - countering China. The Trump administration believes that encouraging Russia to end the war in Ukraine, bringing it back economically, and showering it with US investments could ultimately shift the world order away from China.
As the publication writes, "this is an adventure, and the Ukrainians are concerned about it, but it underscores the administration's belief that the greatest geopolitical threat facing the United States and the West is China, not Putin's Russia." "While countering China is not the only reason the administration wants a ceasefire, it helps explain why after more than 15 months of fruitless negotiations and numerous threats to abandon a deal, the president's team - special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner - continue to seek a breakthrough," the publication notes.
A Trump administration official, granted anonymity to discuss ongoing negotiations, said that finding "a way to rapprochement with Russia" could create "a different balance of power with China that could be very, very beneficial."
The administration's desire to use peace talks on Russia's war against Ukraine to counter China has not been previously reported, the publication notes.
"But many observers believe that this plan has little chance of success - at least as long as Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping remain in power." "And the idea of providing Russia with economic incentives to rapprochement with the US raises concerns in Ukraine," said a Ukrainian official, granted anonymity to discuss diplomatic issues.
"We have already had such attempts in the past, and it led to nothing," they said. "Germany had [Ostpolitik, Germany's policy towards the East], and now Russia is waging the deadliest war in Europe."
And when it comes to betting on a split between China and Russia, the Ukrainian official noted that both countries "have one thing in common that cannot be defeated - they hate the US as a symbol of democracy."
"Nevertheless, this strategy is consistent with the administration's broader foreign policy initiatives aimed at least in part at countering Chinese influence," the publication writes. "The removal of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro from power and pressure on the Cuban government to the brink of collapse reduce China's influence in the Western Hemisphere. The administration threatened Panama, which withdrew from Chinese leader Xi's 'Belt and Road' initiative a month after Trump took office, and called Peru's deal with China on its deep-water port in Chancay 'a cautionary tale,'" the publication notes.
And the strike on Iran changed China's potential for oil imports, as Tehran supplied Beijing with more than 13 percent of its oil in 2025, Reuters reported. Indeed, a Trump administration official noted that between Venezuela, Iran, and Russia, China bought oil at below-market prices, subsidizing its consumption "by more than $100 billion a year over the past few years," the publication writes.
"So, it was a huge subsidy for China because it could buy oil from these places on the black market, sometimes $30 a barrel cheaper than on the spot market," the source said.
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"Even despite reports that Russia is exchanging intelligence with Iran, the US and Russia continue negotiations. Witkoff and Kushner met last week with Kirill Dmitriev, Putin's chief adviser," the publication states. The Russians called the meeting "productive." Witkoff said they would continue negotiations. "These negotiations and broader efforts to counter China are now taking place under the guise of Trump asking several countries, including China, for help in securing the Strait of Hormuz," the publication writes.
The US National Security Strategy, published in November, spoke quite a lot about China, although Beijing is often not directly mentioned in it. Many US lawmakers - from both parties - consider China the most serious long-term threat to America's global power.
"There is a long-standing strategic view in the US that Russia and China working together is not at all in our interests, and we are looking for ways to divide them or, at least, to tactically cooperate with a partner that poses a lesser long-term strategic threat to us," said Alexander Gray, Trump's National Security Council chief of staff during his first term.
Gray, now CEO of the consulting firm American Global Strategies, compared these efforts to former US Secretary of State and US National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger, who led President Richard Nixon's trip to China during the Cold War to detach that country from the Soviet Union.
The US State Department declined to comment on this report. However, a State Department spokesman previously stated that China's economic ties with Latin American countries pose a "national security threat" to the US, which the administration is actively trying to mitigate. The White House declined to comment.
Fred Fleitz, another Trump National Security Council chief of staff during his first term and now vice chairman for American security at the America First Policy Institute, noted that the US president "pressured Putin to end the war to normalize Russia's relations with the US and Europe," and wants Russia to rejoin the G8.
"It is clear that Trump wants to find a way to end the war in Ukraine and coexist peacefully with Russia," Fleitz said. "But I also believe that he correctly views the growing Russian-Chinese alliance as a much greater threat to US and world security than the war in Ukraine, and therefore wants to find ways to improve US-Russian relations to weaken or break this alliance."
Others, however, remain skeptical. Craig Singleton, senior director of the China program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said that the goal of breaking relations between Russia and China "is attractive in theory, but in practice the partnership between Moscow and Beijing is immutable."
"Obviously, there's nothing wrong with trying diplomacy, and President Trump is a dealmaker. But history probably shows that it won't really lead to much," Singleton added. "The likely outcome [with Russia] will be limited tactical cooperation with the US, not some lasting break with Beijing."
And China seeks to maintain Russia as an ally and junior partner in its relations as a counterweight to Western powers, the publication writes. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi reaffirmed these relations at a press conference this month, stating: "In a changing and turbulent world, Sino-Russian relations remain strong despite all difficulties."
Rubio: US cannot allow Russia to become China's “junior partner”27.02.25, 14:01 • 28872 views
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio hinted at a broader strategy shortly after his confirmation, stating in an interview that "a situation where the Russians are constantly a junior partner to China, forced to do whatever China tells them they need to do, because of their dependence on them," is not "a good outcome" for Russia, the US, or Europe.
But Rubio, like the Trump administration official granted anonymity to discuss ongoing negotiations, acknowledged that a complete break in these ties would be a difficult task.
"I don't know if we'll ever be able to fully detach them from their relationship with China," Rubio said last February.
Adam Savit, director of China policy at the America First Policy Institute, argued that "Russia is of minor importance, but it will not be a decisive variable in the US-China rivalry," and that "the center of gravity is East Asia."
"Russia provides China with strategic depth, a friendly border, energy supplies, and a second front in Ukraine to distract the West," he said. "Rapprochement with Russia could complicate China's strategic position, but Moscow is a declining power and firmly a junior partner in this relationship."