Partial lifting of US sanctions on Belarus - a big problem or a positive for Ukraine?

The United States has officially removed key enterprises of Belarus' potash industry from sanctions lists. The decision of Special Envoy John Koole has already entered into force.

The lifting of sanctions on Belarusian potash and banks could affect not only global markets but also the geopolitical balance in the region. At the same time, for Ukraine, this issue has indirect but important consequences – from economics to security. Financier Viktor Halchynskyi told UNN about this in a comment.

The global market will receive more potash

According to the expert, the resumption of Belarusian potash exports will primarily affect the balance of supply and demand in the global market. This resource remains scarce, so any increase in supplies is immediately felt.

This is not only about volumes but also about price stabilization, as the agricultural sector directly depends on the cost of fertilizers.

In any case, the resumption of potash exports will increase supply and help overcome the deficit. This is a sufficiently sought-after product, so the lifting of sanctions will positively affect the market and may even partially reduce prices

Will Russia benefit?

However, the key question is whether this decision will be indirect support for Russia. Here, according to the expert, everything depends on the implementation and control mechanisms. After all, both "Belaruskali" and the banks from which sanctions were lifted are state structures, which means they can be used as a tool to circumvent restrictions.

If the production of Belarusian potash suddenly sharply increases, it may mean that Russian exports will also start passing through Belarus. The same applies to banks – if Russian money goes through them, that's another story

The expert emphasizes that financial control and transparency of operations will be crucial.

If financial monitoring does not allow Russian funds to pass through, that's one scenario. If Belarusian banks start working with Russian clients and conducting their operations, it could lead to new, secondary sanctions

Political component - an attempt to detach Minsk from Moscow

The lifting of sanctions may also have a political goal – an attempt to weaken Belarus' dependence on Russia. According to the expert, this looks like a signal of support for Lukashenka's regime from the West.

In recent years, Belarus has actually become economically dependent on the Russian Federation, but at the same time, it has become an important element of its energy system.

This looks like a friendly gesture to Lukashenka – to give him the opportunity to get additional income and slightly reduce dependence on Russia. Belarus has almost lost its economic independence, but its infrastructure also works for Russia

In particular, we are talking about oil refining, which remains an important element of market supply.

What this means for Ukraine

For Ukraine, according to Halchynskyi, the situation does not change fundamentally. Kyiv maintains a certain caution regarding Belarus, trying to maintain a balance and prevent open escalation. At the same time, the status quo remains fragile and depends on further political decisions.

A good signal for Ukraine is an attempt to detach Belarus from Russia and give Lukashenka's regime a "carrot" so that he does not commit hostile actions against Ukraine and other countries.  

For Ukraine, by and large, nothing changes. But this is a fragile peace

He emphasizes that Ukraine does not change its assessment of Belarus' role in the war.

The fact that we are not acting against Belarus does not mean that we do not consider it an accomplice in the aggression. Its territory was used for the attack, and that has not gone away

Risks remain

In conclusion, the expert notes that the impact of lifting sanctions will depend on details that have not yet been disclosed. It is the control mechanisms that will determine whether this decision becomes an economic relief for the market – or a new channel for circumventing restrictions.

We don't know all the details. If it's a clearly controlled mechanism, that's one story. If loopholes for Russia appear, that's completely different. And then the consequences can be opposite

US lifts sanctions on Belarusian potash - media19.03.26, 18:53 • 5444 views