Next winter will be the most serious test for Ukraine, electricity shortage could reach 6 GW - International Energy Agency
Kyiv • UNN
The coming winter will be the most serious test for Ukraine due to Russian attacks on its energy infrastructure. The IEA predicts an electricity shortage of up to 6 GW and proposes measures to ensure energy security.
Ukraine's electricity shortage could reach six gigawatts this winter amid Russian attacks on energy infrastructure and the expiration of a gas supply contract at the end of this year. The upcoming winter will be the most serious test for Ukraine since the full-scale invasion, according to a report by the International Energy Agency (IEA), UNN reports.
Details
The IEA report says that this summer, when demand for electricity is usually lower than in winter, Ukraine's generating capacity fell by more than two GW below the peak demand of 12 GW.
As a result of intensified hostile attacks between March and May 2024, by mid-year, Ukraine had only about a third of its pre-war electricity generation capacity left, even before the latest strikes.
Ukraine's energy system has survived two consecutive winters since Russia's invasion, but the third promises to be the most severe test yet
This winter, peak demand for electricity could rise to 18.5 GW. Even when the country's nuclear power plants return from repairs, and with 1.7 GW of electricity imported from neighboring European countries, Ukraine's supply shortfall could reach six GW, equivalent to Denmark's peak annual demand.
Subsequent attacks on the infrastructure, unexpected equipment failures, and missed maintenance cycles add additional risks
It is noted that heat supply to large cities in Ukraine may also become a problem. Most of the attacks on the heating infrastructure took place in the regions located near the front line. Kharkiv region is currently deprived of large heat-generating capacities, and other frontline regions - in particular, Chernihiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, and Mykolaiv - have suffered serious damage to their heat-generating capacities. Kyiv's heat supply is also under threat, according to the IEA.
Under average weather conditions, Ukraine can meet all of its gas needs from domestic production and storage, but a colder-than-average winter will increase the need for imports. After Russian gas transit ceases in January, when existing contracts expire, additional gas supplies will have to come from Central and Eastern Europe.
Another risk is disruptions in gas and electricity supplies in neighboring Moldova. Although Moldova no longer depends directly on Russian gas to meet demand on the territory it controls, it receives about two-thirds of its electricity from a power plant in the breakaway region of Transnistria.
The upcoming expiration of the agreements on the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine at the end of 2024 creates significant uncertainty about gas supplies to the Transnistrian region and Moldova's electricity security, the report says.
To ensure Ukraine's energy security this winter, according to the IEA, it is necessary to:
- Improve the physical and cyber security of Ukraine's critical energy infrastructure. It is necessary to carry out repair and construction works to protect facilities from further attacks, especially at key system nodes, such as network substations near nuclear power plants.
- Speed up the delivery of equipment and spare parts for repairs.
- Increase and decentralize power supply. Large energy facilities are more vulnerable to attack, so decentralization brings obvious security benefits. Accelerating the deployment of small gas-fired thermal power plants, as well as solar photovoltaic and wind systems, complemented by batteries and other storage technologies, is crucial to increasing energy resilience, according to the IEA .
- Expand electricity transmission capacity with the European Union.
- Engage consumers in energy saving and respond to demand by continuing to invest in energy efficiency.
- Prepare backup options for winter heating .
- Ukraine and its international partners must ensure sufficient gas reserves ahead of the winter.
- Strengthen gas import capacities from the European Union
- Coordinate approaches to Ukraine and Moldova. Energy security issues in Ukraine and Moldova are closely linked, and investments in new sources of supply, energy efficiency, and strengthening interconnections with neighboring countries bring both national and regional benefits. This requires coordinated strategies that recognize the interconnected nature of risks in the region and act quickly to mitigate them.
- To lay the foundation for a modern, market-based, resilient and sustainable Ukrainian energy system that is well integrated with the EU system.
