Macron to outline nuclear doctrine amid European concerns over US alliance
Kyiv • UNN
French President Emmanuel Macron will update the nuclear doctrine, excluding joint European control, but will offer support to allies. This comes amid concerns about the reliability of the American nuclear "umbrella" under President Trump.
French President Emmanuel Macron will update France's nuclear doctrine on Monday, ruling out the possibility of joint European control and outlining what Paris can offer allies concerned about the reliability of the American "nuclear umbrella" under US President Donald Trump, Reuters reports, writes UNN.
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While France and the United Kingdom are nuclear powers, most European countries primarily rely on the United States to deter any potential adversaries – a long-standing pillar of transatlantic security.
"However, Trump's rapprochement with Russia in the war in Ukraine and his tougher stance on traditional allies, including threats to seize Greenland, an autonomous territory of NATO ally Denmark, have alarmed European governments," the publication writes.
Earlier this month in Munich, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said that Berlin had begun talks with France on a potential European nuclear deterrent, which Macron said should be a "holistic approach to defense and security."
Other states, including traditionally pro-American Scandinavian countries, have cautiously expressed interest, the publication writes.
However, European officials privately, it is noted, "doubt how capable the French arsenal is of protecting the continent." Concerns include questions about cost-sharing, who will control decisions on launching missiles, and whether focusing on nuclear forces will crowd out much-needed investment in conventional capabilities, the publication writes.
France spends about 5.6 billion euros (6.04 billion dollars) annually to maintain its arsenal of 290 submarine- and air-launched missiles – the fourth largest in the world.
"Europe, if it really wants to act independently... must build up its own nuclear capabilities. This costs billions and billions of euros," NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte told the European Parliament in January.
"You will lose the main guarantor of our freedom, which is the US nuclear umbrella," he noted.
According to experts, "within NATO's nuclear deterrence, the US deploys a total of about 100 nuclear bombs in Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Turkey." In the event of a conflict, the air forces of these non-nuclear countries will carry American bombs under the so-called "nuclear sharing" doctrine, the publication writes.
Deputy Pentagon chief Elbridge Colby told allies in Brussels this month that Washington would continue to extend its nuclear deterrence to Europe, even as it invests more than a trillion dollars in modernizing its own arsenal.
French officials say Paris is not seeking to replace the American "nuclear umbrella" or compete with NATO.
"While the primary task of American nuclear forces is to strike enemy nuclear arsenals, their French and British counterparts aim to inflict unacceptable damage on the political, military, and economic centers of potential adversaries," wrote Etienne Marcous of the FRS think tank in a recent note.
"This doctrine requires far fewer warheads to be credible," he pointed out.
French officials say they want Europeans to better understand what the French doctrine can and cannot provide. But Paris insists that funding its deterrence remains an exclusively French responsibility, ensuring exclusive national control.
A key element of France's position is "strategic uncertainty" about when nuclear weapons might be used and where France's vital interests intersect with broader European defense, the publication writes.
For some partners, this opacity does not inspire confidence, the publication notes.
"First, we want to see what France can offer... It's not about having deterrence. It's about how convincing it is," said a senior diplomat from Eastern Europe.
"Any expansion of France's role will also require Europe to develop long-range missiles with a range of over 2,000 km – a capability it currently lacks," the publication writes.
The development of tactical nuclear weapons, designed for use on the battlefield, as opposed to strategic weapons designed to be launched over vast distances, is seen as even less likely, the publication indicates.
According to officials, such actions would raise alarms within the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, long championed by European governments.
"We understand where these discussions are coming from. They are caused by the fact that our transatlantic alliance is no longer what it used to be," EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas told reporters in Brussels this month.
"My personal opinion is that if we have more nuclear weapons around the world, I don't think we will live in a more peaceful world," she said.
Speaking at France's nuclear submarine base in Brittany, Macron will present the traditional presidential term review of nuclear doctrine.
France's position within the doctrine aims to maintain a minimal but credible arsenal capable of inflicting sufficiently serious losses to deter any first strike, the publication writes.
"Just discussing alternatives is already a signal to Moscow," said one senior European official. French officials did not provide details before Macron's speech, but said the strategic environment had changed dramatically since his last speech in 2020, citing Russia's growing arsenal and increased nuclear rhetoric after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
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France has long stated that its vital interests have a European dimension. In 2020, Macron went even further, inviting partners to strategic discussions – an initiative that did not generate much enthusiasm at the time.
Officials said that "one principle remains unchanged: only the French president can order a nuclear strike," the publication writes.
"That will remain the case," said a French presidential adviser.