Will Ukrainians return home after the war?

After the war ends, not all Ukrainians will return home, but there will not be a complete abandonment abroad either. Oleksiy Pozniak, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Head of the Migration Department of the Mykhailo Ptukha Institute for Demography and Quality of Life Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, told a journalist from UNN more about whether displaced persons will return after peace comes and what factors influence this.

According to the expert, it is currently impossible to accurately determine what proportion of Ukrainians will return, as the duration of the war and how it ends play an important role. The level of post-war reconstruction and the volume of investments will also be significant. In addition, the intentions of the migrants themselves change over time.

Well, not everyone will return, and it certainly won't be the case that everyone stays. How many, what proportion will return, depends on how long the war will last, on how it ends, and on how much these promises of our partners regarding post-war investments will be realized. That is, these are such unpredictable things. Therefore, scientists, as a rule, talk about a range

According to estimates by the Center for Economic Strategy, as of January 2026, 5.6 million Ukrainian refugees remain abroad. Among them: 40% are adult women, 29% are adult men, and 31% are children under 18. After the war ends, 1.6 million refugees will return to Ukraine under the medium scenario. 2.7 million will remain abroad (excluding Russia and Belarus) under the medium scenario.

At the same time, the expert warns: these intentions are not final, because even after the war ends, living conditions will change, and with them, people's decisions may also change. That is, some of those who do not plan to return now may change their minds.

First, they show that over time, migrants' intentions to return decrease. That is, more and more people say that they will stay abroad, and a smaller proportion will return to Ukraine. But regarding intentions, one can be skeptical, since people are now answering questions based on the current situation.

However, according to the optimistic scenario, according to estimates by the Center for Economic Strategy, the optimistic scenario envisages the return of 2.2 million Ukrainians, while only 2.1 million refugees will remain abroad. That is, slightly more than half of the forced migrants may return, the expert explains. And if the development of events is less favorable, this figure may fall to less than a third. That is, the gap between the scenarios is significant, and this once again emphasizes the uncertainty of the situation.

In the event of an optimistic scenario for the end of the war and post-war reconstruction, slightly more than half of Ukrainian war migrants may return. If the situation develops according to a pessimistic scenario, this figure may be slightly less than a third of the total number of migrants.

Key factors for return remain safety, housing, and work. This refers not only to the absence of hostilities but also to demining territories. It is also important whether the state can provide people with housing and jobs. In addition, personal factors, such as family or connection to home, also play a role.

First of all, it's safety, and safety is not only war and shelling, but also demining the territory. Next is housing. A lot of housing has been destroyed, so people need somewhere to live. And the third is work. If they are more serious, there will be more jobs, higher salaries, and accordingly, this will stimulate return.

Separately, the expert draws attention to the situation with young people. Those who have already entered foreign universities are more likely to stay. They receive diplomas that are recognized in Europe and integrate more easily into local labor markets. At the same time, the situation with younger children is more flexible.

Those who have already reached higher education institutions are more likely to stay, because after completing their studies there, they will have the opportunity to enter the labor market. They will have a specialty that is recognized and a diploma that is recognized in that country. And they will not need to confirm their qualifications.

At the same time, the return of schoolchildren will depend on the conditions in Ukraine and the organization of the educational process, the expert says. It is important whether the state will be ready to help children adapt after studying abroad. This includes, in particular, restoring knowledge of the Ukrainian language and history. This may affect parents' decisions.

If parents know that their children will catch up on relevant knowledge and it will be problem-free, then this increases the likelihood of return. If it is left to chance, then this, on the contrary, will deter people from returning.

It is also possible that after the end of martial law, some Ukrainians, on the contrary, may go abroad. According to the expert, this will primarily concern those families who are currently separated. However, here too, the decision will depend on economic conditions and family circumstances. In particular, on how women's lives abroad have turned out.

Where a woman has settled well and family ties have been preserved, it is quite possible for a man to go abroad after the end of martial law. But in other cases, this may not happen. Therefore, different scenarios are possible here.

In conclusion, the expert notes, the return of Ukrainians will depend on a large number of factors. For each person, they will have a different weight. That is why it is impossible to make an accurate forecast. However, one can talk about general trends.

This return will be caused by a very large number of factors, and for different people, different factors will have different meanings. Therefore, here, purely individually, there can only be such generalized estimates, and it is impossible to calculate who exactly will return and who will not.