El Niño may become the strongest in several decades — UN

The current El Niño could become the strongest since observations began four decades ago. The UN climate agency warned of this on September 3, UNN reports, citing AFP.

How long will El Niño last

This natural weather phenomenon is expected to become "very strong" in the coming months, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said.

The WMO indicated that there is an "extremely high probability, nearly 100 percent," that El Niño will continue through February.

"Fueled by exceptionally warm ocean conditions in the tropical Pacific, El Niño is expected to strengthen further over the coming months to very strong intensity," the WMO said.

The UN agency classifies El Niño events as weak, moderate, strong, or very strong, meaning it will reach the highest of the four levels.

"If this trajectory continues, it could be stronger than anything since we began monitoring—literally off the charts we have used over the past four decades," WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo told reporters.

El Niño will peak at the end of this year, although its side effects on the climate will continue into 2027, the WMO said.

Heat in the oceans is released into the atmosphere more slowly, leading to higher global temperatures next year.

The powerful El Niño of 2023–24 contributed to 2024 becoming the hottest year on record, and "we should not be surprised if this record is broken," Saulo added.

"El Niño is firmly established and will intensify into a very strong event in the coming months, with major impacts on precipitation and temperature patterns, as well as the associated risks of floods, droughts, and extreme heat," the WMO said.

"El Niño is growing before our eyes," UN Secretary-General António Guterres said.

"The scientific data leave no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters, and these waters are heating up. Sea-surface temperatures are rising, temperatures continue to rise, and the world is in a danger zone of extreme weather. The race is now between growing risks and our commitment to take action on climate change and protect people. We must win this race," he stressed.

What is the impact on the economy

"This exceptional El Niño... has the potential to deliver a huge blow to communities and economies around the world," Saulo said.

"We are already seeing destruction and devastation from droughts and floods, and we expect these impacts to intensify as El Niño strengthens," the WMO representative noted.

She warned disaster-management authorities and climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, healthcare, energy, and water resources, saying that there was "no time to waste" in preparing.

Warming of the Pacific Ocean

El Niño can alter weather and climate conditions thousands of kilometers from the tropical Pacific.

Every El Niño is different, but major events often follow familiar patterns. These include drought in parts of the Amazon, Indonesia, and Australia, disruption of monsoons in India, and changes in precipitation in the tropics.

The WMO forecasts for September–November point to an increased likelihood of above-normal temperatures "over nearly all land areas," alongside precipitation patterns showing a "pronounced and classic atmospheric response to a strong Pacific El Niño," the UN weather and climate agency said.

An index measuring sea-surface temperature anomalies in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific rose from an average of 1.5°C above normal between May and July.

Weekly values from late July to mid-August ranged from approximately 2.2°C to 2.6°C above average, indicating that El Niño was continuing to strengthen.

In some areas, subsurface ocean temperatures were more than 8°C above average during July and early August.

What is El Niño

El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that is not caused by climate change. However, scientists expect it to intensify warming on a planet that is already heating up due to the burning of fossil fuels, while also exacerbating extreme weather events.

El Niño raises surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, causing changes in winds, pressure and precipitation patterns around the world.

El Niño usually occurs every two to seven years and lasts approximately nine to twelve months. Conditions alternate between El Niño and its opposite, La Niña, with neutral conditions in between.