Russian banks are building a massive debt pyramid on loans – intelligence
Kyiv • UNN
Russian banks are mass-converting non-performing consumer loans into bonds for sale. The market for such assets could grow to $13.3 billion by 2026.
Russian banks have found a way to remove distressed assets from their balance sheets while the Central Bank of the Russian Federation's key rate remains at record highs and defaults on the debt market multiply every quarter. This is reported by UNN with reference to the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine.
Details
As noted by foreign intelligence, this scheme has been in operation for more than a year. Consumer loans are packaged into pools, converted into bonds, and sold to investors. This is called securitization.
The market for such securities soared to $3.1 billion in 2025, which is five times higher than the previous year. In 2026, it is projected to reach $13.3 billion. Every third buyer is already a private investor. Sberbank, Alfa-Bank, and Gazprombank have joined the game. The yield on such securities exceeds corporate bonds by 2–4 percentage points,
At the same time, there is a problem: in some 2025 issues, the default rate reached 1.8% monthly—and this was even before real household incomes began to fall at an accelerated pace. If borrowers with lower solvency end up in the pools, the attractive packaging does not protect the investor from losses.
In parallel, the entire Russian debt market is bursting at the seams. In the first quarter of 2026 alone, about 10–11 technical defaults were recorded—almost half of the figure for the entire previous year. Fuel retail, logistics, and development remain the most affected. Up to a quarter of the entire bond market may be in the high-risk zone,
Recall
The military component of the Russian economy has contracted for the first time since 2023. This has dealt a blow to Vladimir Putin's aspirations for stable economic growth amid the ongoing war in Ukraine.