The United States is holding midterm elections for Congress, which could change the balance of power in the U.S. government. Democrats are hoping to regain control of the House of Representatives, while the contest for the Senate remains less certain. The voting results will affect Donald Trump’s ability to implement his policies, as well as the further discussion regarding support for Ukraine.
Political scientist Oleh Lisnyi explained in a comment to UNN why the election results could mark the beginning of a prolonged confrontation between the White House and Congress, how realistic Trump’s impeachment is, and why it is important for Ukraine to maintain the support of both American parties.
The battle for Congress — why these elections matter
On November 3, Americans are electing all 435 members of the House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate — 35 of its 100 seats. These two chambers make up the U.S. Congress, which passes laws, approves the federal budget, and oversees the activities of the executive branch.
The House of Representatives represents the population of the states, and the number of its members from each state depends on its population. The Senate, by contrast, represents the states on an equal basis — each has two senators. Both chambers participate in lawmaking, but the Senate also confirms nominees to key government positions and has the authority to hear impeachment cases.
At present, Republicans control both chambers. However, polling assessments and forecasts by American analysts point to the possibility that the House of Representatives could come under Democratic control. The situation in the Senate is more complicated: to gain a majority, Democrats need to secure at least 51 votes, while Republicans need only 50, provided they have the decisive vote of Vice President J.D. Vance.
According to Oleh Lisnyi, the significance of these elections extends far beyond the usual struggle for a parliamentary majority. He believes that a potential shift in the balance of power could intensify domestic political confrontation, as Donald Trump is unlikely to abandon attempts to advance his own agenda.
I would like to say that America will win these elections, but for now, in my view, the conflict is winning. Given Trump’s rhetoric, I am not prepared to say that he will calmly accept losing control of one of the chambers of Congress
Lisnyi points out that Democrats are already talking about strengthening congressional oversight, establishing commissions, and investigating the activities of the president’s administration, his inner circle, and his family. At the same time, Trump himself is demonstrating a readiness to block the initiatives of his political opponents, including by using the presidential veto.
Under these conditions, American politics may become even less predictable. And this, according to the political scientist, will have consequences not only for the United States but also for international partners that depend on decisions made in Washington.
At the same time, Lisnyi suggests viewing the midterm elections as the beginning of preparations for the 2028 presidential campaign. After all, their results will show not only the level of support for the current administration but also the political positions with which Republicans and Democrats will move toward the next struggle for the White House.
The expert notes that Republicans will have to assess Trump’s influence on the party’s image, while Democrats still do not have an obvious leader capable of uniting the various political currents.
The situation among Republicans is complicated, since Trump, as the party’s leader, can affect its image in ways that are not only positive. Among Democrats, it is still unclear who they will enter the next presidential election with. We see various currents within the party, but the question is whether there is someone capable of uniting them
Will Congress turn into an arena of permanent war with the White House
If Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives, they will be able to lead key committees, conduct investigations into the Trump administration, and influence the passage of legislative initiatives. However, this will not mean that the president will automatically lose the ability to implement his own policies.
Trump will retain veto power, and overcoming it requires the support of two-thirds of the votes in each chamber. Therefore, even Democratic control of Congress would not guarantee them the ability to determine state policy independently.
When asked what the next two-year period might look like—an uninterrupted confrontation or a search for compromises—Lisnyi suggests not limiting oneself to two scenarios. In his view, the most likely outcome is that the sides will alternate confrontation with situational agreements.
I see a third option—it will be an intense political war over the next two years, but with brief truces. In other words, it will be neither exclusively confrontation nor, conversely, a constant compromise
He adds that even in the presence of political confrontation, both sides will be forced to reach agreements on certain issues. This particularly concerns the budget and legislative decisions, whose adoption requires cooperation between different branches of government.
At the same time, even while in the minority, the Democrats will have tools to block or slow down certain processes. In Lisnyi's view, this could become one of the sources of persistent tension in relations with the White House.
Does Trump face the threat of impeachment
Another possible consequence of the House of Representatives coming under Democratic control could be intensified discussions about impeaching Donald Trump. The Democrats would gain greater opportunities for congressional investigations, but control of the lower chamber alone would not mean the president's automatic removal from office.
The procedure involves two stages—the House of Representatives may impeach by a simple majority vote, but removing the president requires a Senate decision supported by two-thirds of the senators present. Thus, even if the Democrats control both chambers, they would still need the support of some Republicans.
Lisnyi doubts that such a number of Republican senators would be willing to support Trump's removal. He explains this not only by the attitude of part of the party toward the president, but also by political calculations ahead of the 2028 elections.
I am not sure that a sufficient number of Republicans will be found for Trump's impeachment to result in his removal from office. But a certain part of the party may support such initiatives. It is important here to look not only at today's situation but also at the prospects for the next presidential election
According to him, Republicans are faced with a difficult choice: on the one hand, certain decisions by Trump may negatively affect the party's reputation; on the other, abandoning their own leader on the eve of a presidential campaign would create additional opportunities for the Democrats.
Lisnyi also draws attention to the ambiguous attitude toward Trump among his supporters. Some voters may criticize his decisions, particularly those affecting Americans' economic situation, while continuing to support the president politically.
In the political scientist's view, Republicans will not want to give their opponents an additional argument for the presidential campaign that they could use as evidence of an internal crisis within the party.
The significance of the elections for Ukraine
For Ukraine, the results of the midterm elections are of particular importance because Congress influences the funding of foreign aid, budget approval, and oversight of the president's administration. A potential strengthening of the Democrats could change the nature of the discussion in Washington regarding support for Kyiv.
At the same time, a Democratic victory in the House of Representatives would not mean an automatic revision of Trump's foreign policy. The president retains significant powers in the sphere of international relations, and Congress cannot simply compel him to act in accordance with the position of the parliamentary majority.
Therefore, the issue is not only which party will gain control of Congress, but also how Ukraine should build relations with the American political system. Lisnyi is convinced that Kyiv should not demonstrate support exclusively for one party, even if certain decisions by the Trump administration draw justified criticism.
Ukraine should not take the side of either of the American political forces. We have made similar mistakes before, so now we need to act very carefully. We need bipartisan support, because there are both Republicans and Democrats among Ukraine’s supporters
At the same time, this does not mean that the Ukrainian authorities should refrain from publicly reacting to decisions by Washington that run counter to Ukraine’s interests. Lisnyi believes that Kyiv should defend its position and respond to negative steps by the administration, but should not allow such criticism to be perceived as a confrontation with the entire Republican Party.
In his view, Ukraine needs to work more actively with the new members of Congress already now, establish contacts with future senators and congressmen, and identify those politicians who are ready to support Kyiv. This approach will make it possible to preserve channels of interaction regardless of which party controls the legislative branch.
Why instability in the US benefits Russia
A separate threat to Ukraine could be not the election result itself, but a prolonged internal political crisis in the United States. If the president and Congress are focused on fighting one another, this could weaken Washington’s attention to international issues, including Russia’s war against Ukraine.
In addition, domestic instability in the US would create additional uncertainty for allies and partners. Under such conditions, it becomes more difficult to predict American decisions, plan international cooperation, and count on a consistent foreign policy.
Lisnyi emphasizes that Ukraine needs, above all, a stable United States in which the system of checks and balances functions and state institutions remain capable of making decisions regardless of political conflicts.
It is in our interest for there to be stability in the US, and for the system of checks and balances to function properly. Ukraine needs a predictable United States with which it can build a consistent policy and defend its own interests
He also outlines two risks that could arise if the internal crisis deepens. First, the US authorities could effectively focus on internal confrontation, leaving international issues on the back burner. Second, political problems within the country could prompt the administration to act more actively on the international stage, which would not necessarily serve Ukraine’s interests.
According to the political scientist, Russia and China, which are interested in deepening divisions among democratic states, could benefit the most from the weakening of Western unity.
Chaos in the United States is definitely not in our interest, nor is general instability in the world. Above all, this creates additional opportunities for Russia and China, which are interested in weakening the unity of democratic countries