Brussels is developing proposals to revise the EU accession system, in use since the Cold War, replacing it with a controversial two-tier model that could accelerate Ukraine's entry in any peace agreement ending Russia's invasion, the Financial Times reports, writes UNN.
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The plan, which is being discussed in the European Commission, although preliminary, is already causing concern in EU capitals worried about an "enlargement-lite" approach with far-reaching consequences for the Union, according to seven senior officials involved in the talks.
Ukraine, which became an official candidate for EU membership shortly after Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022, as the publication notes, views membership as a fundamental element of its post-war future and a definitive statement of its pro-Western orientation.
References to Ukraine's EU accession in 2027 are included in the drafts of a 20-point peace plan being discussed under US leadership, despite EU officials estimating that the country may need a decade of reforms to meet the strict EU accession criteria, the publication writes.
But European Commission officials, it is noted, understand that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will only be able to agree to other aspects of a possible peace agreement, such as giving up territory to Russia, if he can present EU membership as the positive outcome.
"The preliminary plan under discussion would allow Ukraine to join the bloc, but with significantly less decision-making power. For example, normal voting rights would not initially be available to Ukraine at leaders' summits and ministerial meetings," according to officials.
Under the proposals, which are still being developed, Kyiv "would gain gradual access to parts of the bloc's single market, its agricultural subsidies, and internal development funding after reaching membership milestones."
This would fundamentally change the accession rules agreed in 1993, which require countries to adhere to a vast number of EU rules across various policy areas and to join the club only after fulfilling all requirements.
Extraordinary times call for extraordinary measures... We are not undermining enlargement. We are expanding the concept of enlargement. The rules were written over 30 years ago. And they need to be more flexible. This is a once-in-a-generation moment, and we must meet it.
But diplomats from EU member states and other aspiring member countries who participated in informal discussions with the European Commission on the proposal said that "there is deep concern about this concept."
Some fear that it will negatively affect the future stability of the bloc, devalue the worth of membership, and upset other candidate countries, the publication writes.
"This is a trap set by Putin and Trump, and we are falling into it," said a second EU diplomat, referring to the risk to the bloc's unity.
"The EU is once again stuck between a rock and a hard place," said Mujtaba Rahman, managing director for Europe at Eurasia Group. "It has no choice but to accelerate Ukraine's accession, yet this will open a Pandora's box of political and strategic risks that no one in Brussels fully understands."
Ukraine's progress within the existing membership process has been stalled by Hungary, which has blocked the unanimous approval required to officially open and close each of the 35 so-called "chapters" for accession.
EU and Ukrainian officials believe that if the US signs a final peace plan, it will force Budapest to concede.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Thursday linked Ukraine's accession to peace talks. "Accession is both a key security guarantee for Ukraine and an important engine for future growth and prosperity," she said.
"But a large group of existing EU members, while eager to support Ukraine, strongly oppose any measures that would create loopholes in the rules or establish a two-tier membership system," four bloc diplomats said.
"It's impossible to have a merit-based process with a fixed completion date," one of these diplomats said.
"Try to impose this on member states, and they will never accept it," a senior EU official said, warning that it would lead to a devastating split between Brussels and the member states.
Other officials said that any move to adjust the enlargement process would also undermine the ambitions of other accession candidates and raise broader questions about how the EU interacts with its close neighbors.
Montenegro and Albania are closest to gaining membership in terms of progress on negotiation "chapters" and may feel they are being offered a less attractive prize, three of the seven people said.
This would also raise questions about whether other states that have made little or no progress towards membership in recent years, such as Bosnia and Turkey, would be offered the same facilitated access enlargement option.
It is unclear how this would affect European Economic Area countries such as Norway, which are part of the single market without voting rights, or other non-EU countries that are close partners, such as the United Kingdom.
"You are asking huge, complex questions with something like this," said a third senior EU diplomat. "There are so many possible unforeseen consequences."