Putin is likely to escalate the war in Ukraine, despite Trump's peace efforts - Reuters
Kyiv • UNN
Reuters sources report that Putin is strengthening his resolve to continue the war. He rejected advisors' proposals for a compromise and, according to media reports, is preparing for escalation.
Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin rejects calls for peace negotiations with Ukraine, citing three sources close to the Kremlin, Reuters reports, indicating that "Ukraine's recent drone strikes on Russian oil refineries and ports strengthen his determination to continue the fight," writes UNN.
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Two sources said that "Putin is likely to escalate the conflict, which is now in its fifth year." One of them, who meets with him regularly, described a "'high probability' of escalation in the coming months."
These comments came after U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday that Putin wants the war to end and that a resolution is "closer than people think."
Trump stated that both Putin and Zelenskyy want to reach an agreement07.07.26, 16:39 • 3320 views
Last week, Trump held separate phone calls with Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. He met with Zelenskyy at the NATO summit on Wednesday, where, according to the Ukrainian President, they discussed "ideas for bringing peace closer."
The White House did not respond to requests for comment.
One person familiar with Putin's thinking said that "he is 'straining' to achieve the key goal of capturing the rest of Donbas" in eastern Ukraine, where Russia's advances have slowed this year. The same source reported that "Putin recently rejected a group of advisers who proposed a compromise based on a ceasefire along the current front line." A second source said that "Putin believes Russia will soon capture Donbas."
In June, the Kremlin chief publicly rejected Zelenskyy's call for a meeting and a ceasefire.
"Russia is ready for a peaceful settlement, but has sufficient capabilities to act independently and continue the 'special military operation,'" Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in response to a request for comment from Reuters.
In response to a request for comment from Zelenskyy's office, a senior Ukrainian official said that "Kyiv's intelligence reports over the past months reflect that Putin is preparing for further steps in the war, not peace, including new operations in Ukraine or a possible attack on another European country."
Some Western military analysts believe that "Russia will need a mandatory conscription of men of fighting age to achieve the goal of capturing Donbas." This conscription is a politically unpopular step, the publication notes.
Russian military experts "are increasingly publicly discussing escalation, including the possibility of strikes on European targets, such as NATO bases in the Baltic countries," the publication writes.
"Such a step risks drawing Russia into a direct confrontation with the U.S.-led alliance, testing NATO's commitment that an attack on one member country is an attack on all," the publication states.
Russia may try to sow tensions within NATO through isolated attacks, comparable to the recent Russian drone strike on Romania, according to Jack Watling of RUSI, a defense and security think tank in London.
"The Russians will not seek war with NATO. But this could be used to split NATO on how to respond," Watling said. He added that increasing tensions with NATO could help Putin provide a political justification for military conscription in Russia.
At the same time, the publication notes that ongoing strikes on oil refineries, ports, and storage facilities in Russia and in Russian-occupied territory of Ukraine have caused a serious fuel shortage, bringing the consequences of the war home to millions of Russians. Putin's approval rating remains high but recently hit its lowest point since the start of the war in 2022, as a poll showed, the publication writes.
Ukraine's allies have seized on what they call a shift in momentum in the war. Some are calling for additional economic sanctions to force Putin to end the conflict.
However, according to a person who meets regularly with Putin, "Ukraine's recent successes have further angered Putin and made him more determined to respond harshly."
Over the past week, Russian forces have carried out two major drone and missile strikes on Ukraine, including the capital Kyiv, resulting in the deaths of dozens of civilians.
Speaking last week to generals in televised comments, Putin stated that "Ukraine's strikes on energy infrastructure mean that Russia will seek to capture more Ukrainian lands along the border, beyond Donbas, as a 'buffer zone'."
Former Russian Defense Ministry official Andriy Ilnytskyi, in a June 29 column in Russian state media, said that "the escalation of the conflict could begin with the destruction of 30 large industrial facilities in Ukraine," the publication writes. Ilnytskyi added that "the next stage could be strikes on NATO bases in the Baltic countries and Romania, as well as on European Union facilities that produce long-range drones and missiles for Ukraine," the publication writes.
Responding to journalists' questions about Ilnytskyi's column, Kremlin spokesman Peskov said this week that Russia must strengthen its own security and cannot "turn a blind eye" to the militarization of Europe.
Talk of escalation from Russia comes as its slower progress on the battlefield has raised the prospect that capturing Donbas will require significant time and losses.
Putin, according to a source who meets with him regularly, "considers gaining control of the region a matter of principle, stating that the Russian president 'needs some kind of victory'."