Orban created "traps" for his successor - Politico learned how loyalists can block new authorities
Kyiv • UNN
Viktor Orban appointed his supporters to key state institutions to block budgets and laws. The new government will not be able to change the system without a majority.
Hungary's current Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has placed loyalists in key state institutions who will be able to obstruct the budgets and legislation of any new prime minister, Politico reports, writes UNN.
Details
"Even if opposition leader Péter Magyar wins Hungary's elections this month, he will face an exhausting challenge trying to govern effectively, thanks to a complex legal and political minefield laid by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán," the publication states.
Kremlin ally Orbán, in his 16 years in power, has "secured a tight grip on critical state institutions, meaning his loyalists will still have crucial powers to obstruct Magyar's budget plans and overturn legislation through a politicized constitutional court."
For Magyar, it is noted, "the challenge will be to find a way to govern successfully without being forced into early elections in a system designed to make him fail."
In addition to Orbán's continued influence over budgets, many key aspects of public life, including "cardinal laws" governing the judiciary, media, electoral system, public finances, family policy, and the church, can only be changed if Magyar and his Tisza party can gain an unexpected two-thirds majority.
"Orbán's government and the ruling Fidesz party are betting that Tisza – a young party with support from across the political spectrum – will fail due to lack of experience and be unable to govern," the publication writes.
"For Tisza to govern, they need to have some coherent vision for the country, and they need something like a coherent political community behind them. They are united by only one issue: they want to get us out of power," Hungary's EU Affairs Minister János Bóka told the publication.
"That may or may not be enough to actually remove us from power, but it's certainly not enough to govern the country," he added.
Magyar, the publication notes, is preparing for a difficult start if he wins, as polls show he may only get a simple majority. He will also have to contend with the hostility of Fidesz supporters who hold important positions in the bureaucratic system, as they can also only be dismissed if two-thirds of lawmakers vote for their removal.
"It will certainly be a tough battle, and I'm quite sure Orbán won't make life easy for his successor if he loses," Katalin Cseh, a former liberal MEP and current opposition MP, told the publication.
"You know, it's much easier to destroy democracy and institutions than to rebuild them," she added.
Budget deficit
Magyar's first challenge will be to draw up a budget capable of funding his expensive campaign promises, which include increased public spending, such as on healthcare, after years of underinvestment.
The problem is that Fidesz has depleted the treasury, reaching 50 percent of its deficit target for the entire year 2026 by February after introducing huge pre-election subsidies to win voter support.
If balancing the books wasn't difficult enough, Orbán can make life even harder with one of his deadliest traps: the budget council. The body consists of three Fidesz loyalists, recently appointed for terms of 6 to 12 years, who can veto the budget.
Hungarian President Tamás Sulyok, who is close to Fidesz and will be in office until 2029, can call early elections if the government fails to pass a budget. The budget council and the president can only be removed by a two-thirds majority of parliament.
Magyar will face similar challenges trying to unfreeze 18 billion euros of frozen EU funds, as he will need to implement reforms demanded by Brussels by the August deadline.
During the election campaign, Magyar seemed confident that he could access at least some of these frozen funds by demonstrating significant efforts to combat corruption. "However, he will not be able to change laws that require an overwhelming majority... and his success will partly depend on his largely untested negotiation skills and some flexibility from the EU," said Orsolya Ráczova of the consulting firm Eurasia Group.
The two-thirds majority "bottleneck"
The need for a two-thirds majority for many of these crucial changes becomes the biggest obstacle to the success of any new government.
The introduction of "cardinal laws" on everything from the judiciary to the media was a key feature of Orbán's 2011 constitutional reform, which passed in just nine days, ensuring that many key policies would be extremely difficult for any future government to change.
The Venice Commission, composed of independent experts in constitutional law, expressed concern at the time, calling the two-thirds majority threshold for amendments excessive, especially for "matters that should be left to the ordinary political process." The Commission also disapproved of the excessive powers granted to the budget council and its "impact on the functioning of democracy."
Fidesz has filled other important oversight positions with its loyalists, including the state prosecutor, the ombudsman, and media representatives. "All of them are 'really important, and at this point captured, and can have the potential to block a non-Fidesz government,'" said Miklós Ligeti, legal director of Transparency International Hungary.
Fidesz has also implemented structural advantages in media ownership concentration. In 2018, it created the Central European Press and Media Foundation (KESMA), into which Orbán's business allies helped consolidate hundreds of local, regional, and national media outlets that now broadcast the Fidesz narrative. "Any attempt to change this would require – you guessed it – a two-thirds parliamentary majority," the publication writes.
The Constitutional Court is a prime example of how Orbán can make life difficult for Magyar, as Fidesz has appointed all 15 of its judges, including a former Fidesz defense minister. The Curia, Hungary's supreme court, is headed by András Varga, who was appointed by the Fidesz-controlled parliament.
Any laws that the Hungarian government tries to pass can be rejected by the higher courts. "Because of the bias of the Supreme Court, or at least its president, and the Constitutional Court, it will be a very difficult battle for Tisza," said Adrienne Laczo, a former judge who resigned in November 2024 in protest against the lack of judicial independence.
In addition, Orbán's lawmakers in December strengthened the veto power of President Tamás Sulyok, who was appointed in 2024 for a five-year term.
"Orbán planned for the worst-case scenario in case of his defeat," said Kim Lane Scheppele, a professor of constitutional law and elections at Princeton University. She emphasized that the constitutional amendment passed in December "will make it virtually impossible for a new parliament to impeach or remove the president."
Meanwhile, the president can obstruct the passage of legislation by returning it to parliament or referring it to the Constitutional Court, which can declare it unconstitutional, potentially nullifying any reform efforts by Tisza.
Scheppele compared this to the challenges faced by Prime Minister Donald Tusk in Poland, trying to push through reforms despite the veto power of President Karol Nawrocki, who supports the nationalist conservative Law and Justice party.
Orbán in opposition
From the opposition, Orbán can also make life very difficult for Tisza in everyday politics.
Zsuzsanna Szelényi, a former Fidesz MP who left the party when Orbán changed its ideology from liberalism to national conservatism in the 1990s, said that Orbán and Fidesz have significant experience as opposition fighters.
Szelényi drew attention to what happened in 2006, the last national elections in Hungary that Fidesz did not win.
Orbán initially conceded defeat to the Hungarian Socialist Party, but within months this changed after Hungarians were outraged by the leaked private speech of Socialist leader Ferenc Gyurcsány. In his speech, Gyurcsány admitted that he had brazenly lied to win the election, denying that he would introduce austerity measures.
"Between 2006 and 2010, Fidesz took politics to the streets and harassed the government with extremely obstructionist tactics in parliament," Szelényi told the publication. She believes that Orbán may be tempted to repeat this approach. "Orbán will have many procedural tools to delay the formation of even a new government," she said.
Political scientist Gábor Török agreed: "If the opposition wins, I can imagine all sorts of unpleasant scenarios."
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