China is waiting – why Beijing needs a protracted war in Ukraine and why it is dangerous for the world
Kyiv • UNN
Recently, Western media have increasingly reported on the deepening military-technological cooperation between China and Russia. This concerns both possible assistance to Moscow with new technologies and joint developments in the field of countering Starlink.
China is currently not interested in ending the Russian-Ukrainian war, as it uses it as a tool to weaken the West, strengthen its own influence over Moscow, and study modern military technologies. At the same time, the deepening military cooperation between Beijing and the Kremlin may indicate China's preparation for a possible forceful scenario around Taiwan. This opinion was expressed in an exclusive commentary to UNN by international expert, candidate of political sciences Stanislav Zhelikhovsky.
China does not want a quick end to the war
Recently, Western media have increasingly reported on the deepening military-technological cooperation between China and Russia. This concerns both possible assistance to Moscow with new technologies and joint developments in the field of countering Starlink. Against this backdrop, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that China allegedly set a clear condition for Russia not to use nuclear weapons.
According to Zhelikhovsky, these signals need to be considered comprehensively. He believes that currently Beijing has no political interest in a quick end to the war.
At this stage, China, in my opinion, is not interested in ending the Russian-Ukrainian war. For it, this conflict is largely a confrontation between the West and Russia. Beijing benefits from both sides exhausting each other as much as possible. And after that, China may try to position itself as a peacemaker or mediator who will help resolve the conflict and strengthen its own international authority
At the same time, he emphasizes that such a scenario is possible only at a later stage, while currently China continues to gain strategic advantages from the protracted war.
For now, the People's Republic of China derives much more benefit from the war continuing. Russia is becoming increasingly dependent on China – economically, technologically, and politically. For Beijing, this is a very advantageous situation
Russia is becoming increasingly dependent on Beijing
The expert is convinced that the current strengthening of military cooperation between the two countries has a much broader meaning than simple assistance to Moscow. According to him, China is gradually creating a situation in which Russia finds itself in strategic dependence on it.
We see that military cooperation between the states is intensifying. But it's not just about helping Russia now. China is interested in Russia becoming increasingly dependent on it. In essence, Beijing wants Moscow to be indebted to it and to support China in the future in the event of a major international conflict
He does not rule out that in the future the roles may even partially change.
If China ever decides on a military operation against Taiwan, then Russia will help it as much as it can. That is why China is now investing in a long-term partnership with the Kremlin
Ukraine has become the largest testing ground for modern warfare
According to Żelichowski, Beijing is carefully analyzing the combat operations in Ukraine, as it has effectively gained the opportunity to observe a new generation of warfare without its own participation. The expert notes that for the Chinese leadership, the Russian-Ukrainian war is a large-scale testing ground.
China is carefully studying this war. For it, this is a huge testing ground for modern warfare. It is analyzing the use of drones, communication systems, electronic warfare means, naval technologies, and long-range strikes. Beijing is drawing conclusions about what the war of the future will look like
He emphasized that particular interest is drawn to the technologies used by Ukraine and its Western partners.
China is studying not only Russian capabilities, which are well known to it. It is analyzing the technologies of Ukraine and the West no less carefully. This allows it to assess which solutions could be effective in a possible future conflict
Taiwan remains the main strategic goal
Zhelikhovskyi is convinced that all these processes are directly related to Taiwan.
According to him, the risks of a military scenario around the island remain quite real.
China is increasingly demonstrating a military presence around Taiwan, conducting exercises, maneuvers, and building up its capabilities. This is a serious signal for the international community. We cannot say exactly when this might happen or whether it will happen at all, but signs of preparation exist
He believes that this is precisely why reports of joint Chinese-Russian technological developments should not be underestimated.
If information now emerges about new areas of military-technological cooperation between China and Russia, it is an alarming signal for the entire democratic world. After all, China is preparing for potential future challenges
The experience of war in the Middle East also affects China
Beijing pays special attention to the latest events in the Middle East. According to the expert, the US and Israeli military operation against Iran has also become a subject of detailed analysis by the Chinese leadership.
China drew its own conclusions after the events surrounding Iran. Despite the powerful military potential of the US and Israel, they were unable to fully achieve their political goals. For Beijing, this is also a lesson regarding the possible development of future conflicts
According to him, these events could push China to develop its own military capabilities even more actively.
This only strengthens China's motivation to invest even more resources in developing its defense capabilities and prepare for possible force scenarios
Beijing talks about peace but supports Moscow
Separately, the expert drew attention to the contradictions in China's policy on nuclear weapons. He noted that official Beijing declares the unacceptability of using nuclear weapons, but its practical actions often contradict such statements.
China continues to declare the need to prevent the use of nuclear weapons. But at the same time, it is actively building up its nuclear potential, deepening cooperation with Russia and Belarus. Therefore, questions arise about the consistency of such a policy
In his opinion, today China is trying to simultaneously act as a supporter of peace and remain one of Russia's key partners.
China calls for de-escalation, but at the same time continues to support Russia. Therefore, it would be wrong to talk about its complete neutrality. If information about new stages of military cooperation between Beijing and Moscow is confirmed, this will become another serious challenge for the entire world
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