European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is flying to Scotland to meet directly with US President Donald Trump on Sunday, indicating that a trade deal with America's largest trading partner is close, Politico reports, writes UNN.
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But European diplomats, the publication writes, are not counting on a deal until it is officially concluded, after having been burned earlier by Trump's penchant for last-minute cancellations.
This is because the US president's modus operandi (method of operation) for trade deals is clear: he wants to deal face-to-face with foreign leaders, using a top-level maneuver to try to achieve final concessions, the publication points out. This, it is noted, does not work so well with the EU, a bloc of 27 countries that makes decisions literally by committee.
This fundamental issue has turned negotiations between the EU and the Trump administration into a series of stops and starts, as negotiators carefully craft compromises that then fall apart when presented to Trump or European countries. And that is why, even as the meeting between von der Leyen and Trump inspires hope for a deal to avoid a harsh US tariff hike on August 1, they are not counting on it, the publication writes.
"Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed," one EU diplomat said. "I think everyone is quite tense," another said.
Trump himself underscored the uncertainty on Friday after landing in Scotland for what was initially announced as a golf weekend. "I'm meeting with the EU on Sunday, and we're going to be working on a deal. ... Ursula will be here. Very respected woman. So we look forward to it. It's going to be good," he told reporters, adding, "I think we have a good 50-50 chance. That's a lot."
Asked what issues were still being discussed, he replied: "I don't want to tell you what the stumbling blocks are. But the stumbling blocks involve, maybe, 20 different things. You don't want to hear them all."
"Yes, things are complicated with the EU," said an official, who was granted anonymity to describe the US president's thoughts on the matter. "But if some of these countries had the opportunity to make a deal with us on their own, they would take that opportunity."
It is true that, as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has repeatedly noted, the EU "has a collective action problem," as leading economies such as Germany and France put forward different priorities and negotiating strategies.
Germany and France unite EU against US tariffs - Financial Times23.07.25, 11:21 • [views_7865]
Conservative German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has actively lobbied for a deal that would somehow ease the situation in the country's powerful automotive industry, while French President Emmanuel Macron has led calls for a tough dialogue with Trump, supporting retaliatory tariffs and calling for the activation of the EU's so-called "trade bazooka" - the Anti-Coercion Instrument - a universal weapon that would only need qualified majority support to strike back at the US.
But Merz and Macron met in Berlin on Wednesday and pledged to present a united front on trade issues during a series of meetings aimed at strengthening fragile Franco-German relations. And EU countries on Thursday approved plans to impose tariffs on US goods worth approximately $109 billion if a deal is not reached and the US increases its duties.
The publication points out that even more problematic at this stage is Trump's tendency to add his own last-minute spin to trade deals that his negotiators have been working on for months, sometimes to the point where he brings countries back to the negotiating table. With each of the previous deals the administration has reached this summer, Trump has had a final conversation with the country's leader, using the opportunity to demand additional concessions or change key terms in favor of his government, the publication writes.
This may not work with von der Leyen, who acts on behalf of the bloc's members and does not have the authority to accept last-minute changes, the publication notes.
"I can expect the Commission to have some leeway," said Daniel Mallany, a former assistant US trade representative who negotiated with Europe. "But yes, if something comes up at the last minute that goes beyond what has been discussed with member states, it could be difficult."
The EU is now rallying around a deal that would apply a 15 percent tariff on goods from EU member states — higher than the current 10 percent rate Trump imposed on all countries in early April, but half the 30 percent rate the US president threatened in a July 12 letter.
EU and US on track for 15% tariff deal - Reuters24.07.25, 08:35 • [views_3668]
According to four diplomats, the deal will largely mirror the agreement the US struck with Japan earlier this week. Tariffs on cars and auto parts will also be reduced from the 25 percent tariff Trump imposed on all car imports in May to 15 percent. Other sectors affected by US tariffs, such as steel and aluminum, are still under discussion.
According to one EU official, the 50 percent tariff Trump imposed on steel and aluminum remains a key stumbling block, as do other sectoral tariffs the White House is threatening to impose on industries such as pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and aerospace. "There is complete uncertainty about this, what we can get out of it," the official said.
On Friday, Trump downplayed the chances of lowering his steel tariffs, saying he didn't have much room to maneuver to offer more generous terms because "if I do it for one, I have to do it for all."