A study has shown that a terribly painful tropical disease called chikungunya can now be transmitted by mosquitoes in most of Europe, UNN reports with reference to The Guardian.
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Rising temperatures due to the climate crisis, it is stated, mean that infection is now possible for more than six months a year in Spain, Greece and other Southern European countries, and for two months in southeastern England. Continued global warming means that the spread of the disease northward is only a matter of time, scientists said.
This analysis is the first to fully assess the impact of temperature on the incubation period of the Asian tiger mosquito virus, which has invaded Europe in recent decades. The study found that the minimum temperature at which infection can occur is 2.5°C lower than previous, less reliable estimates, a "quite shocking" difference, researchers said.
The chikungunya virus was first discovered in 1952 in Tanzania and was confined to tropical regions, where millions of cases are reported annually. The disease causes severe and prolonged joint pain, which is extremely debilitating and can lead to death in young children and the elderly.
In recent years, a small number of cases have been reported in more than 10 European countries, but large-scale outbreaks, numbering hundreds of cases, hit France and Italy in 2025.
The rate of global warming in Europe is about twice the global rate, and the lower temperature limit for virus spread is of great importance, so our new estimates are quite shocking. The spread of the disease northward is only a matter of time
Dr. Steven White, also at UKCEH, said: "Twenty years ago, if you said chikungunya and dengue would appear in Europe, everyone would say you were crazy: these are tropical diseases. Now everything has changed. This is due to this invasive mosquito and climate change – it's really that simple."
"We are seeing rapid changes, and this is concerning. Until last year, France had reported about 30 cases of chikungunya in the last 10 years. Last year, the number exceeded 800," he noted. The virus was brought by travelers from France's overseas territories in the tropics, where there were outbreaks of the disease, including from Reunion.
Dr. Diana Rojas Alvarez, who leads the WHO's arbovirus team, said: "This study is important because it indicates that transmission [in Europe] may become even more apparent over time." She added that chikungunya can be extremely dangerous, with up to 40% of people still experiencing arthritis or very severe pain after five years.
"Climate has a huge impact on this, but Europe still has a chance to control the spread of these mosquitoes," she said. One important tool is public education on removing standing water where mosquitoes breed, as well as wearing long, light-colored clothing and using repellents to prevent bites. According to her, health authorities also need to establish surveillance systems.
The study, published in the Journal of the Royal Society Interface, used data from 49 early studies of the chikungunya virus in tiger mosquitoes. For the first time, it was possible to determine the incubation period across the full range of temperatures.
The study found that the threshold temperature for transmission is 13-14°C, meaning that infection can occur for more than six months a year in Spain, Portugal, Italy, and Greece, and for three to five months a year in Belgium, France, Germany, Switzerland, and a dozen other European countries. Previously, the minimum temperature was estimated at 16-18°C, meaning that there is a risk of chikungunya outbreaks in more regions and for longer periods than previously thought, the publication notes.
Dengue and chikungunya may soon become endemic in Europe - study15.05.25, 11:01 • [views_5963]