Against the backdrop of intensified Russian strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure, Ukraine’s need for foreign financial assistance is growing, while the continuation of the war through 2027 will increasingly depend on the stability of Western funding. This is stated in a report by Bloomberg Economics, UNN writes.
Details
Russian forces have intensified strikes on Ukrainian business infrastructure, energy facilities, and the civilian transport network, using drones and missiles. According to analysts, this could lead to a contraction of the Ukrainian economy in 2026.
Last week, the National Bank of Ukraine significantly downgraded its forecast for GDP dynamics in 2026. Instead of the previously expected growth of 1.8%, the regulator now forecasts a 0.4% contraction of the economy.
If the forecast comes true, this will be Ukraine’s first economic downturn since 2022, when the country’s GDP fell by more than 30% following Russia’s full-scale invasion.
Despite the resilience of the Ukrainian economy during five years of full-scale war, the intensification of Russian attacks on energy, industrial, and export infrastructure is increasing the country’s need for external support.
At the same time, maintaining the level of international assistance is becoming more difficult due to war fatigue and political changes in European countries.
The European Union, Ukraine’s largest donor, has allocated more than $100 billion to support Ukraine’s wartime needs in 2026–2027. However, according to Kyiv’s estimates, these funds may be insufficient due to rising costs amid the continuation of the war.
Last month, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Ukraine would need €70 billion ($78 billion) in 2027 to finance its defense.
Bloomberg Economics identifies political uncertainty in key European states as an additional risk to continued support for Ukraine. In particular, the presidential election in France and parliamentary elections in Italy and Poland could complicate decision-making on future assistance.
Zelenskyy said he was ready to meet with Putin in Turkey with Erdoğan's mediation01.11.26, 22:26