Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries (ORPs) are gradually turning one of the budget-forming sectors of the Russian economy into a source of constant financial losses and technological problems. Damage to complex equipment, much of which is manufactured abroad, is forcing Russian enterprises to spend millions of dollars on repairs, search for alternative suppliers, and reduce the production of petroleum products. At the same time, experts interviewed by UNN are convinced that, to increase economic pressure on the Kremlin, Ukraine should maintain the intensity of its strikes on Russian oil refining, while Western partners should increase sanctions pressure and shut down opportunities to circumvent bans on the supply of high-tech equipment, UNN writes.
Russian oil refineries operating in a state of constant repair
Russia’s oil-refining industry, which for decades supplied the domestic market with fuel and generated significant export revenues for the state, is increasingly being forced to operate amid damage to its production facilities. Ukraine’s long-range strikes are creating a problem for Russian enterprises that cannot be solved merely by strengthening air defenses or increasing funding for repair work.
The distinctive feature of this campaign lies not only in the number of enterprises attacked but also in the repeated strikes. Even after individual production facilities are restored, refineries remain vulnerable to new damage. As a result, Russia is forced to spend ever more money maintaining the operability of its existing capacity.
According to Ukrainian long-range weapons manufacturer Fire Point, the Russian oil-refining enterprises that have most frequently been targeted by Ukrainian attacks include the Saratov (20 attacks), Ilsky (19), Ryazan (18), Syzran (15), Afipsky (15), and Tuapse (13) refineries.
In the fifth year of the full-scale war, Russian refineries are increasingly operating in a state of endless repair. One strike is followed by another, equipment cannot be restored in time, and then an FP-1 (a long-range strike drone — ed.) arrives for an unscheduled inspection of the quality of the repair work, the company noted.
To assess the economic consequences of such intensive attacks, it is crucial to determine which technological units were disabled and how quickly they can be restored.
Military expert Bohdan Dolintse explains that it is not necessary to destroy an entire refinery to seriously disrupt its operations.
It is important to understand that an oil refinery is a complex technological system in which all units are interconnected. Even if some equipment remains undamaged, damage to individual critical components may make it impossible for the entire facility to operate normally. Restoring such facilities requires significant financial resources, specialized equipment, and time. That is why the consequences of strikes can be disproportionately large compared with the scale of the physical damage
At the same time, refineries have different structures and production reserves. Large facilities may operate several similar units, allowing them to partially compensate for damage to individual elements. Therefore, it would be incorrect to speak of a complete shutdown of a refinery after every attack.
However, it is precisely the repeated strikes that have a long-term effect on Russia’s oil-refining industry. Enterprises are forced to restore equipment, maintain current production, and adapt to limited access to foreign technologies simultaneously.
Import dependence, which complicates the restoration of Russian refineries
One of the biggest problems facing Russia’s oil-refining industry remains its dependence on foreign-made equipment. Despite having its own production capabilities, Russian companies have for many years used Western technologies to modernize refineries, increase the depth of oil processing, and produce higher-quality fuel.
After international sanctions were imposed on russia, access to some of these technologies, components, and servicing became significantly more difficult. The kremlin was forced to redirect its focus to the Chinese market. Amid regular strikes on oil refineries, this creates additional problems: even when it has the funds, russia cannot quickly purchase the necessary equipment or find a complete replacement.
Military expert Valerii Romanenko, in a comment to UNN, points out that Western technologies, in particular those of the American company Honeywell UOP, were used at many Russian oil refineries.
Another factor is the dependence of Russian oil refineries on foreign equipment. Western technologies, in particular those of the American company Honeywell UOP, were used at many facilities. This equipment is used for the deep processing of crude oil and the production of valuable petroleum products and petrochemicals. Foreign equipment was also used at some facilities, including in the sector of the company "Lukoil." Therefore, damage to such units can create additional difficulties during repairs and the restoration of production
Dependence on imported technologies has not only a technical but also an economic dimension. Modern deep-processing units make it possible to obtain a larger volume of gasoline and diesel fuel from the same amount of crude oil. The loss of such capacity reduces a refinery's efficiency even if it retains the ability to carry out the primary processing of oil.
Energy expert Sviatoslav Pavliuk adds that russia has its own industrial-equipment manufacturing sector, but it is not always capable of providing comparable technological characteristics.
Regarding the dependence of Russia's oil-refining industry on Western technologies, it is necessary to understand that russia also has its own equipment manufacturing. The problem is that Western technologies were often more efficient. The quality of the equipment directly affects the depth of oil processing and, consequently, how many valuable petroleum products an enterprise can obtain from the raw material
In addition, equipment for large oil refineries cannot always be replaced through an ordinary spare-parts purchase. Some units are manufactured to the specific technological parameters of a facility and require complex installation, commissioning, and integration into existing production processes.
That is why sanctions restrictions on the supply of equipment and technologies may intensify the long-term economic consequences of Ukrainian strikes. The more difficult it is for Russian enterprises to obtain the necessary components, the higher the costs and the longer the restoration of damaged capacity may become.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has also repeatedly spoken about the need to strengthen sanctions pressure on russia overall.
We need a strong 22nd EU sanctions package. And, please, we need real sanctions against every company and every individual involved in the production of Russian ballistic missiles, advanced communications systems, and drones, as well as against those involved in the operation of Russia's financial system - the head of state said after it became known that US President Donald Trump had lifted sanctions on russia and Moscow had agreed to a "diesel deal" with Washington.
Repairs Worth Hundreds of Millions of Dollars: Why Damaged Units Cannot Be Quickly Replaced
The difficulty of restoring Russian oil refineries is determined not only by the availability of foreign equipment but also by the specifics of the technological process itself. An oil refinery is a system of interconnected production units, some of which require individual design, specialized materials, and lengthy installation.
The consequences of such strikes for Russian industry are tangible. Restoring damaged equipment can cost tens or, in some cases, hundreds of millions of dollars. In addition, this concerns specialized foreign equipment that, under Russia's sanctions regime, is extremely difficult to purchase, repair, and keep operational. The loss of such capacity may have long-term consequences: depending on the nature of the damage, partial restoration may take months or even several years
Energy expert Sviatoslav Pavliuk names distillation columns among the elements most difficult to restore. This equipment is used to separate crude oil into fractions and plays an important role in the technological process.
According to him, damage to such structures may require not merely replacing individual parts but a large-scale reconstruction of the entire facility. In addition, this equipment is large, which complicates its transportation.
Chinese equipment may partially compensate for the halt in Western supplies, but it will not necessarily provide a comparable level of efficiency. There are also purely logistical problems. Distillation columns are enormous structures that are difficult to transport. They may be transported in sections and then assembled on-site, or delivered in one piece. In some cases, the dimensions of such equipment create difficulties even when passing under bridges. Previously, transporting similar structures sometimes required dismantling certain infrastructure elements
Thus, even if a Russian enterprise finds a supplier of new equipment, this does not guarantee a rapid return to previous fuel production volumes.
From fuel shortages to rising prices
The economic consequences of damage to oil refineries extend far beyond the industry itself. Russia still remains one of the world's largest oil producers, but the availability of crude oil no longer guarantees a stable supply of gasoline and diesel fuel to the domestic market.
When individual refineries shut down or reduce production, supplies must be redistributed among regions. This increases transportation costs, places additional pressure on logistics infrastructure, and may cause localized fuel shortages.
The consequences begin to affect all sectors of the economy. Rising gasoline and diesel prices increase logistics costs, driving up the prices of food, construction materials, and other goods. It should not be forgotten that the Russian army also requires fuel, so the reduction in production also affects the supply of the occupation forces.
Thus, fuel for Russia is not merely a commodity but an instrument of domestic and foreign policy. Strikes on refineries will not completely halt fuel supplies, but they are gradually turning an industry crisis into an economy-wide one. As early as June, fuel problems had affected 83 regions of the Russian Federation
Refineries are the key link between oil extraction and the fuel market. The more refineries are put out of operation, the more crude oil remains unprocessed. It must be stored somewhere, exported, or production must be reduced. And without refining capacity, such quantities of crude oil inside the country are of no use to anyone, so Russia is trying to export it. However, in this case, exports do not compensate for the decline in production or the fuel shortage on the domestic market.
It is worth noting that on September 28, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin signed a decree banning the publication of data on fuel exports and refinery processing volumes.
Ukrainian strikes on Russia's oil-refining infrastructure are extremely painful for Russia for several reasons. First, revenues from the oil and gas sector are critically important to the Russian economy, providing a significant portion of state budget revenues. Second, Russian political elites have for years promised the population a stable supply of energy resources. Therefore, any disruptions in fuel supplies create not only economic but also political problems for the Kremlin
Another important consequence is that Russia is forced to seek opportunities to import fuel and is already supplying it from India, which places an additional burden on the budget.
How to increase the Kremlin’s economic losses
Overall, we must strike at key nodes of the Russian economy. Oil refineries are precisely such targets. This is an effective area because even drones with a relatively small warhead can cause large-scale fires at refineries. High-temperature processes take place there, including cracking, while the technological units operate under high temperatures and pressure. As a result, damage to critical components can lead to serious consequences for production
At the same time, the strikes alone are insufficient to impose long-term restrictions on Russia’s production capacities. The Russian Federation is trying to compensate for the loss of access to foreign equipment and technologies through domestic production and by seeking alternative markets for purchases. However, such equipment does not always provide comparable efficiency, while its manufacture, transportation, and installation may require considerable time. Accordingly, the more difficult access to imported components becomes, the more costly and time-consuming the restoration of damaged plants will be.
For this purpose, Western partners need not only to expand sanctions restrictions but also to strengthen oversight of their enforcement. Above all, this concerns shutting down channels for the re-export of specialized industrial equipment, restricting the supply of components and technological maintenance, and introducing secondary sanctions against companies that facilitate the circumvention of bans. Particular attention should be paid to technologies that Russian manufacturers cannot fully replace with domestic or Chinese alternatives.
The continuation of Ukrainian strikes is already forcing the Russian authorities to spend resources not only on repairing enterprises but also on stabilizing the domestic fuel market and concealing the real consequences.
Obviously, the greatest long-term effect can be achieved by combining continued Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries with strengthened sanctions control over the supply of high-tech equipment. Under such a scenario, every large-scale damage event will create an increasingly complex production and financial problem for Russian enterprises. And it will bring Ukraine one step closer to peace.