Even before Kim Jong-un sent troops to support Russia's war against Ukraine, there were signs that North Korea's main patron, China, was unhappy with his regime's deepening ties with Moscow, writes the Financial Times, reports UNN.
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In a letter last week that was seen as a signal of growing discontent with Beijing, Chinese President Xi Jinping thanked Kim for his congratulatory message on the 75th anniversary of the founding of Communist China, but omitted the traditional reference to North Korea as a “friendly neighboring country.
Kim, as the publication points out, did not seem to be embarrassed. Western allies reported this week that North Korea has sent more than 12 ,000 soldiers disguised as ethnic minorities from Siberia to fight on russia's front lines, a development that analysts say will only heighten Beijing's concerns about its neighbors' increasingly close military ties.
“The deployment of North Korean troops is a dramatic step and China will not like it at all,” said Andrei Lankov, an expert on North Korea at Kookmin University in Seoul.
For China, the deployment - a dramatic escalation of a partnership that has deepened since Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 but was previously largely limited to munitions - threatens to destabilize the delicate balance of power on the Korean Peninsula, the publication said.
Closer Russian-North Korean ties could also push the United States, Japan and South Korea to strengthen their military alliance in East Asia, which Beijing already sees as aimed at curbing its growing power.
Глава Пентагона: есть доказательства, что в россии есть войска КНДР23.10.2024, 13:57
Beijing wants to avoid at all costs a repeat of the early years of the Cold War, when the Soviet Union, North Korea and China formed a “northern triangle” that opposed the “southern triangle” of South Korea, Japan and the United States, Chinese scholars said.
"China's situation is really difficult right now, it's a real dilemma," said Zhu Feng, executive dean of the School of International Studies at Nanjing University. - On the one hand, we do not want to see the return of the Cold War to East Asia. On the other hand, the United States is trying to strengthen solidarity with South Korea and Japan.
Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said Friday that the escalation of Russia-North Korea cooperation is “deeply troubling” and will “worsen the situation in Ukraine and affect the security of the region around Japan.
China's caution, the publication noted, has been evident since April, when it sent one of its most senior officials, Zhao Leji, to Pyongyang. While the two sides did not disclose details of the talks, analysts said Beijing was uncomfortable with the prospect of losing influence over North Korea, which it sees as a crucial buffer state against U.S.-backed South Korea.
In June, Kim went further, agreeing a strategic partnership with Putin that contained a clause on mutual assistance in the event of aggression against one of the signatories - a move that has caused deep concern for China.
Соглашение о партнерстве с КНДР позволит путину избегать мобилизации в рф - ISW16.10.2024, 10:26
The following month, China's ambassador to North Korea did not attend July celebrations in Pyongyang marking the end of the Korean War, despite the two countries marking 75 years of diplomatic relations this year.
China's Foreign Ministry on Thursday said Beijing was “not aware of the relevant situation” when asked about Pyongyang's decision to send troops.
China's concerns, according to Shen Dingli, a professor of international relations from Shanghai, include "the possibility of being drawn into conflict if the participation of North Korean troops in the war against Ukraine makes the Asian country - Beijing's only military partner - a legitimate target for Kiev.
“China has a treaty obligation to defend North Korea,” Shen said. - If North Korea is attacked, China is legally obligated to send its troops and [if necessary] use all means to defend North Korea.
Some military analysts have expressed concern that North Korea's contribution to russia's military efforts could mean Pyongyang has received a reciprocal commitment from moscow to intervene in the conflict on the Korean Peninsula, a prospect that would alarm Beijing.
But Lankov said such a possibility remains “highly unlikely.
“The North Koreans are doing this for money, military technology and combat experience, not out of a sense of solidarity with russia,” he said. - Russia is not going to get into trouble just out of gratitude to Kim Jong-un.
China is also concerned that Russia is helping North Korea improve its nuclear capabilities, which could accelerate an arms race in the region, said Chen Qi of the Institute of International Relations at Tsinghua University in Beijing. Kim visited Russia's Vostochny Cosmodrome, the country's most advanced space launch site, last year.
Ким Чен Ын заявил об ускорении разработки ядерного оружия08.10.2024, 00:51
But Chen was skeptical that Russia would prioritize relations with North Korea over China, which Moscow has counted on for economic and geopolitical support since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Some analysts say Beijing may be tolerating North Korean arms shipments to Russia to ease pressure and provide direct military aid itself.
Zheu Chu, head of the China Center at the Korea National Security Research Institute in Seoul, said: “Beijing may be secretly happy that Russia is providing economic aid to North Korea instead of China,” while China's own domestic growth is lagging behind.
“China remains at the helm because it ultimately controls both countries,” Lankov said, referring to Pyongyang's dependence on Beijing's aid. - If China wanted to put an end to this absurdity as it sees it, it could do so.