Ukraine prepares to restore air connections: will domestic carriers be able to return
Kyiv • UNN
The authorities are preparing to reopen the skies, but without resolving aviation leasing issues, Ukrainian carriers may disappear. Their return should support the economy.
The authorities are considering the possibility of opening the skies to civil aviation before the war ends. After civil flights resume, it is important that domestic airlines be the first to return to the Ukrainian market. This will not only help restore the industry but also bring economic activity, jobs, and tax revenues related to air transportation back to Ukraine. Economist Viktor Halchynskyi told UNN in an exclusive comment.
The authorities are preparing to open the airports
After the full-scale war began, Ukrainian air carriers were forced to relocate a significant part of their operations abroad in order to preserve their aircraft, crews, and technical staff. Although the airlines’ operations are currently concentrated outside Ukraine, they continue to pay taxes in Ukraine. According to data from Daniil Menshykov, head of the State Aviation Service of Ukraine, aviation-industry enterprises paid nearly UAH 27 billion in taxes and fees to the budget in 2022–2025.
From time to time, proposals to resume airport operations in Ukraine in various forms are voiced in the public sphere. For example, ideas have also been voiced about restoring air connections in western Ukraine.
According to Mykola Kalashnyk, Minister for Restoration, Infrastructure and Transport, there is currently both a political decision and an economic understanding of the need to open Ukraine’s airspace, and the relevant preparations are already under way. In particular, work is ongoing to organize safe areas and shelters and provide alternative sources of electricity, among other things. Ukraine is also studying the experience of other countries whose airports operate amid wartime risks.
Ukrainian airlines may not live to see the skies reopen
Ensuring an appropriate level of security amid constant Russian shelling will obviously take time, but Ukrainian air carriers are already being forced to operate under extremely difficult conditions. The closed airspace deprived them of the domestic market, forced them to refocus on the international market, and imposed additional costs for maintaining their fleets, crews, and technical staff. Against the backdrop of these problems, criminal pressure has become an additional risk for the industry, affecting a number of domestic airlines because of the new approach taken by Ukrainian state bodies to taxing aircraft leasing. Under these conditions, there is a risk that some carriers simply will not live to see the moment when Ukrainian airspace is open to civil flights again.
As UNN previously reported, aviation-industry representatives have long been drawing attention to the problem of state bodies’ new interpretation of leasing payments made to nonresidents, which emerged without any amendments to the Tax Code or international conventions on the avoidance of double taxation. Since 2024, the Economic Security Bureau has begun interpreting transactions involving the leasing of aircraft from nonresidents of Ukraine as the use of equipment. According to the investigators’ version, Ukrainian air carriers were supposed to pay royalties for leasing airplanes and helicopters. Based on this approach, the ESB opened criminal proceedings against at least five air carriers, including MAU, "Constanta Airline," "Rosa Vetrov," H3Operations, and "Skyline Express." According to UNN, another airline—"Urga"—may also figure in a similar case.
The investigations were launched despite the fact that almost all air carriers successfully passed tax audits, and the tax authorities’ remarks concerning leasing applied to only one company.
Aviation-industry representatives insist that the problem arose because of an ambiguous interpretation of the law and requires the establishment of a unified state approach. Moreover, interpreting aircraft leasing as royalties—a practice found in no other country in the world—makes Ukrainian carriers uncompetitive in the international market.
Analysis of data from the State Register of Civil Aircraft shows that as of July 29, 2026, 27 private airlines operated 152 aircraft. Of these, 131, or 86%, were leased, while only 21 airplanes and helicopters (14%) were owned by the airlines themselves. It is worth noting that all leased commercial aircraft are owned by foreign owners. Therefore, the majority of Ukrainian airlines could come under criminal pressure, which could prompt them to leave the Ukrainian market.
It is important that Ukrainian air carriers return to Ukraine
The return of Ukrainian airlines is significant not only fiscally but also symbolically. Unfortunately, not many of our airlines that survived this period remain. Therefore, their return will be an important signal of the restoration of Ukrainian aviation
According to him, the resumption of airport operations will also affect related sectors.
If we set aside the wartime situation and allow ourselves to dream, the restoration of civil aviation will have an effect not only directly on the aviation industry but also on a whole range of related sectors. First and foremost, these include tourism, passenger services, catering and other industries that serve aviation—from food services to airport shops. This will also provide additional revenue to the state, since there are specialized payments and fees for aerodrome services
Halchynskyi added that the resumption of civil aviation flights would mean that the country is returning to normal functioning.
The restoration of civil aviation will also have a noticeable indirect effect on tourism, the hotel business, catering, logistics and other sectors. Moreover, the restoration of civil aviation at least at one Ukrainian airport—most likely in western Ukraine—will in itself become a signal of a certain stabilization and that the country is gradually returning to normal functioning
Demand could be very high after the reopening of the skies
Halchynskyi predicts that after flights resume, the aviation market could come back to life fairly quickly, as significant pent-up demand for international and domestic transportation will emerge.
After the reopening of the skies, I think the aviation industry will be able to recover quickly enough, since demand for international and domestic air travel will initially be very high. It will be limited primarily by the capacity of airports—for example, Lviv or Uzhhorod
According to him, Lviv Airport has already demonstrated its ability to handle significant passenger flows, particularly during Euro 2012. Therefore, under favorable conditions, the restoration of substantial transport volumes is entirely realistic.
At the same time, safety remains the determining factor. If airport operations have to be constantly suspended because of air-raid alerts, this will result in aircraft downtime, flight delays and cancellations and, consequently, additional costs for carriers. This will particularly affect the decisions of foreign airlines, which will take into account security risks and the cost of insuring aircraft.
That is why, in Halchynskyi's opinion, Ukraine must use the time to prepare so that, once the security situation improves, flights can be restored as quickly as possible.
Today, we can only prepare so that we can launch aviation as quickly as possible when the time comes. Under favorable conditions, this could take literally 10–15 days, several weeks or a maximum of one month
When will the airports become operational?
The expert doubts that it will be possible to open Ukraine's airspace as early as next year.
I am not sure that this will happen in the coming months or even next year. The main prerequisite for restoring civil aviation should be a significant decrease in the intensity of the war specifically in the air. Today, we are seeing the opposite situation. It is unlikely that we will simply be able to build aviation according to the Israeli model, when attacks also occur frequently but are less intense and have a less negative impact than in Ukraine
Under these conditions, the state's task is not limited to technically preparing airports for the future reopening of the airspace. It is equally important to ensure that, by that time, Ukraine retains its own airlines capable of being the first to return to the domestic market.
The authorities are clearly aware of this. To resolve the situation involving pressure on domestic carriers, the issue of aviation leasing was submitted for consideration by the Committee on Tax Policy, Accounting and Auditing of the Public Council under the Ministry of Finance. Following the first meeting, it was decided to initiate the creation of a working group under the Ministry of Finance, which is to develop a draft general tax consultation on the taxation of lease payments in favor of non-residents. This mechanism will make it possible to end pressure on Ukraine's aviation industry from the Bureau of Economic Security and establish uniform rules for the taxation of aircraft and helicopter rentals that comply with the provisions of the Tax Code of Ukraine and international law.
Representatives of the aviation industry warn that if the situation with aviation leasing cannot be resolved, Ukraine risks losing its civil aviation sector. This would mean that, after the reopening of the airspace, the existing demand for air travel would be met primarily by foreign carriers, and a significant share of the economic benefits from the restoration of air links would not accrue to Ukraine.