Massive missile strike no longer guarantees results in modern warfare - CPD on events in the Middle East
Kyiv • UNN
CPD head Kovalenko stated that military doctrines are changing due to the effectiveness of US and allied air defense. The one with better intelligence and AI wins.
The US-Iran war has become a continuation of the development of new methods of modern warfare. Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Center for Countering Disinformation of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine (CPD), wrote about this on Telegram, as reported by UNN.
Details
According to him, if Russia's war against Ukraine demonstrated the development of the drone component, then in the Middle East "we see something complex."
Iran had over 2,500 ballistic missiles and thousands of drones, including Shahed. The scenario that analysts had modeled for years: a massive strike, air defense breakthrough, thousands of casualties, destroyed infrastructure, paralysis of US bases, a burning Israel - but this did not happen. US and allied air defense/missile defense showed effectiveness that forces a review of the key military doctrine of the last decade: a massive missile strike no longer guarantees a result
He pointed out that "we saw the same thing in our war - Russia's attempt at 'holodomor' with missile terror against energy infrastructure did not yield results."
The Middle East, similarly - some missiles reached their targets. Yes, there were strikes on energy and logistics. But the scale was not such as to change the course of the war. Instead, the US and Israel did what was considered almost impossible until recently: the destruction of a significant part of Iran's military-political leadership at the start, the defeat of up to 50-80% of ballistic missile launchers, systemic integration of intelligence, satellites, drones, and AI to find and destroy targets in near real-time.
He added that the war in the Middle East showed that the winner is the one with better air defense, intelligence, and the ability to destroy launchers before launch.
"This is very important now not only for us, but also for Europe. The monarchies of the Middle East, which Iran attacked, are compact and large - similarly, Russia can try to attack Europe, and has demonstrated intentions with hybrid drone attacks. The air defense of the monarchies proved ready, Ukraine's consultations further strengthened it. Is Europe ready for threats here and now? I think hardly," Kovalenko summarized.
Recall
US President Donald Trump and his advisers are considering resuming limited military strikes on Iran in addition to a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz as a way to break the deadlock in peace talks.