Is the war in Ukraine coming to an end - expert opinion
Kyiv • UNN
The head of the GUR sees progress in negotiations, although experts urge caution. The Kremlin may be preparing society for mobilization or peace.
The Head of the President's Office, Kyrylo Budanov, stated that he sees progress towards a potential peace agreement with Russia. He said this in an interview with Bloomberg, as reported by UNN.
Details
Statements about a possible end to the war and progress in negotiations should be assessed cautiously and in a broader context. Despite certain signals, there are currently no clear signs of a swift end to the war. This opinion was expressed in a comment to UNN by political scientist Oleh Lisnyi, analyzing the words of the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate, Kyrylo Budanov.
Is there real progress in negotiations?
Recent statements by the Ukrainian authorities about the possible approaching end of the war have sparked active discussion. At the same time, according to the expert, these signals cannot be taken literally without understanding the broader picture.
Lisnyi emphasizes that the level of awareness among government officials is significantly higher, but only a part of the processes is publicly announced.
I think Budanov is more informed than all of us combined. And it's not the first time he's spoken about certain positive developments, but he doesn't elaborate on them. His words should be considered in the context of events, not as a direct signal of a quick end to the war.
He adds that it is important to pay attention not only to public statements but also to the behavior of the parties.
The Russian Federation does not publicly demonstrate constructiveness. On the contrary, we see actions that can hardly be called steps towards peace. At the same time, what is not brought into the public sphere may contain certain positive elements. And the fact that we do not see an open escalation in statements can also be interpreted as a signal.
US signal and "shuttle diplomacy"
According to the political scientist, such statements may be addressed not only to Ukrainian society but also to international partners, primarily the United States. This is an attempt to draw attention to the Ukrainian track against the backdrop of other global crises.
This could be a signal to the United States: you have focused on other areas, but the Ukrainian issue remains and requires activity. Ukraine demonstrates readiness for constructive engagement and expects greater involvement from partners.
The expert also suggests that a format of so-called "shuttle diplomacy" is currently being formed.
It could be a scenario where negotiations first take place in Kyiv, then in Moscow. That is, the parties offer their visions through intermediaries. But we do not know the details of these processes, so we can only analyze external signals.
Why Russia is tightening the screws internally
Separately, the expert drew attention to internal processes in Russia, in particular the possible strengthening of control over the information space. In his opinion, such steps may be preparation for difficult decisions for Russian society.
Tightening the screws is an attempt to neutralize potential discontent. If access to information is restricted, it means that the authorities are afraid of society's reaction. Telegram, for example, performed a serious media function, and its restriction can be a tool of control.
Lisnyi agrees with Volodymyr Zelenskyy's opinion on two possible scenarios that the Kremlin may be preparing for by closing Telegram.
The first scenario is the end of the war with a decision that may be unpopular. The second is a new wave of mobilization. And for both options, internal risks need to be minimized so that people cannot quickly organize and protest.
At the same time, according to the political scientist, among these options, the mobilization scenario seems slightly more likely. He does not speak of it as a guaranteed development of events, but believes that the logic of the Kremlin's actions currently pushes more towards such a decision.
Economy as the key to Kremlin's decisions
According to the political scientist, the main factor that will determine Russia's further actions is the economic situation. It is financial capabilities that determine whether the Kremlin can continue the war in its current format.
Everything comes down to money. If Russia does not receive additional resources, the economy begins to shrink. And then the question arises: either end the war, or look for new resources, including through mobilization.
He adds that even if there are funds for weapons, the problem of human resources arises.
There may be money for missiles or drones, but there are not enough people. And this means that they will have to be recruited by force. And this, again, creates risks for internal stability.
Is a "slow war" scenario possible?
Lisnyi also noted that the war has already entered a format of gradual attrition. This refers to a scenario where hostilities continue for a long time, but without sharp breakthroughs.
In fact, the scenario that is often talked about - slow progress and attrition - is already being implemented. The pace is not groundbreaking, but it is stable. And Russia still has enough resources for this.
At the same time, this is not enough for a radical change in the situation.
To turn the tide of the war, there are not enough people or resources. And this is what will force Russia to make difficult decisions in the near future.
Should we expect a quick end to the war?
Despite statements about possible progress, the expert urges not to draw premature conclusions. In his opinion, there are currently no objective signs that the war is entering its final phase.
I don't see confirmation that we are in the final stage. I don't rule out that Budanov has other information. But from open sources and what we see, it seems that this is not the end yet.
Thus, despite individual signals of possible progress, the situation remains complex and ambiguous, and key decisions may depend primarily on Russia's economic state and the position of international partners.