From April 1, the gas supply scheme may change – will there be enough resources and what will happen to tariffs?

The termination of the special obligations (PSO) for "Ukrnafta" from March 31 may change the balance of Ukraine's gas market and increase dependence on imports. At the same time, experts believe that it is currently impossible to completely abandon this mechanism in wartime conditions.

PSO are special obligations that the state imposes on energy companies to guarantee gas supply to the population and district heating companies at fixed prices. It is thanks to this mechanism that relative tariff stability is maintained in Ukraine during the war.

Viktor Halchynskyi, former spokesman for NAC "Naftogaz of Ukraine" in Lviv region, explained the risks for the energy system and whether there is an alternative to PSO in a comment for UNN.

PSO transforms but does not disappear

Against the backdrop of statements about the possible termination of special obligations for "Ukrnafta", it is important to understand that the mechanism itself is not completely abolished, but changes its configuration. The state is already adapting the model to new conditions - in particular, to the consequences of attacks on energy infrastructure.

The expert explains: "Ukrnafta" may receive a new function - to actually become a reserve supplier in crisis conditions.

It is not so much about the abolition of PSO as about its transformation. Under the new approaches, "Ukrnafta", in the event of a crisis situation in the gas market in 2026, may be obliged to import gas using credit funds and then sell it at a price that will cover costs. This is already a different function - not just selling resources, but ensuring the system at a critical moment 

He adds that such decisions are directly related to the consequences of the war.

We must take into account the strikes on gas production, transport and storage infrastructure. This means that a resource deficit is possible, and gas imports for the needs of the population and district heating companies may become inevitable 

Risks to the gas balance

The issue of resource balance directly depends on whether Ukraine can compensate for the losses of its own production. In case of non-extension of PSO in the usual format, the market may face additional pressure - both financial and resource.

It can be assumed that the problems caused by the war force us to switch to imports. And "Ukrnafta" can become one of the tools to cover this deficit. But it is still difficult to say what the final model will be after April 30, when the current tariff for the population is in effect 

According to him, the key uncertainty lies in further government decisions regarding tariffs and the supply model.

Is there an alternative to PSO?

Theoretically, Ukraine could switch to a fully market model, but only under other conditions - without war and with a developed competitive market. Today, such a model seems unrealistic.

In peacetime, one could talk about a single market price and competition between suppliers. Such a model has already worked - in 2019-2020, "Naftogaz" competed with private companies, and consumers could choose a supplier 

However, after the full-scale invasion, the situation changed dramatically.

It became economically unprofitable for private companies to work with the population. As a result, almost the entire segment switched to the supplier of last resort - "Naftogaz". And now there is simply no alternative, not because they don't want to, but because the market is not functioning fully 

PSO will remain until the end of the war

According to the expert, the mechanism of special obligations will remain a key tool for market support at least until the end of the war.

In the conditions of full-scale aggression, PSO remains virtually the only mechanism that allows guaranteeing gas supply to the population and district heating companies at acceptable prices. It is impossible to let everything go to the free market now - the system simply will not withstand 

At the same time, he does not rule out gradual changes in tariff policy.

The issue of price revision may arise due to the need for gas imports. But this will probably be some kind of compromise option, not full liberalization 

Ukraine's gas market is entering a period of uncertainty, but the basic principles remain unchanged. PSO, despite its transformation, remains a key element of energy security.

In wartime conditions, the state is forced to balance between market mechanisms and social protection, and a full transition to a competitive market is possible only after the situation stabilizes and infrastructure is restored.