Russia has not abandoned the prospect of a direct military confrontation with Europe. Moscow considers it one of the scenarios for military conflicts through 2045. This is reported by the Foreign Intelligence Service, as reported by UNN.
Details
The Foreign Intelligence Service noted that today Russia’s main goal in the European direction is to undermine support for Ukraine while maintaining the lowest possible level of risk for itself. To this end, Moscow has a much more effective toolkit than a direct invasion. This involves hybrid warfare: sabotage, cyberattacks, influence operations, disinformation, "accidental visits" by drones, and espionage. According to the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine, nearly four hundred Russian intelligence officers are present in Europe. Their activities enable Moscow to systematically test the limits of what is permissible, attempting to act below the threshold that could trigger a collective NATO response.
At the same time, it would be a mistake to believe that Russia has abandoned the prospect of a direct military confrontation with Europe. On the contrary, Moscow considers it one of the scenarios for military conflicts through 2045. As many as six of them are related to Northern Europe. Scenarios concerning Poland and the Baltic states are also being actively developed. After all, Putin’s regime inherently needs an external enemy to justify its own policies, mobilize society, and maintain control over it
In addition
The Foreign Intelligence Service also noted that among Russia’s goals are undermining European unity and discrediting its security architecture. One possible tool is a controlled regional crisis on NATO’s eastern flank. According to Russian assessments, the Baltic states are one of the most vulnerable links in European security. The scenario may involve creating a situation in which the Alliance will be forced to make decisions amid uncertainty and limited time.
The goal is not to defeat NATO in a military sense, but to demonstrate its alleged inability to respond promptly and collectively defend its members. It is mistaken to believe, the intelligence service noted, that the Kremlin is making its plans without taking "public sentiment" into account. According to the ECFR, Russians name the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Poland, Finland, and the Baltic states among the main unfriendly countries. At the same time, 61% of respondents believe that the time has come for negotiations, while 59% believe that, should they fail, aggressive actions should be intensified.
Thus, the Russian threat to Europe has long extended beyond the possibility of a direct attack by Moscow. Russia is preparing for a long-term confrontation in which the Ukrainian and European directions are interconnected. Therefore, Europe must perceive Ukraine not as the periphery of its own security, but as its indispensable forward line, based on the principle that the security of Ukraine and Europe is indivisible. Strengthening its own defense capabilities, reducing energy dependence, consistently applying economic pressure on Russia, and, most importantly, supporting Ukraine are not separate political decisions, but elements of one great strategy to deter a common enemy