The shortest and most expensive summit in the history of the North Atlantic Alliance (NATO) ended on Wednesday, June 25. Its main event was the agreement of almost all member countries of the Alliance to increase their defense spending to 5%. The agenda of the summit participants also included the war of russia against Ukraine. Will the summit in The Hague have consequences for Ukraine and can our state hope for further support in its fight against the aggressor, a journalist of UNN found out.
NATO Summit and Ukraine
In general, the NATO summit in The Hague demonstrated a change in some approaches. Especially as it concerns us, Ukraine, for the first time in years of war we participated in this summit not as a potential member of NATO, but as an honorary guest and partner in certain areas. Despite the invitation of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian team to the NATO summit, we see that Ukraine was not able to participate in all working meetings
The political scientist also drew attention to the fact that the NATO Declaration, although it guarantees unconditional support for Ukraine in the future (military, financial, political), no longer contains statements, as in the declarations of the Vilnius Summit or the Washington Summit, that Ukraine has the right and opportunity to become a member of the Alliance. At the same time, there has been a change in the attitude towards the aggressor state, the russian federation.
The change in approach to Ukraine is obvious, just as the change in approach to russia is obvious. Now it is said about the long-term threat posed by russia, and not about the direct threat, as it was in the statements of the Vilnius and Washington NATO Summits
The expert also pointed out the leading role of Donald Trump, who managed to achieve his main goal – European partners agreed to increase defense spending to 5%.
Defense spending at 5%
"The NATO summit in The Hague largely took place under the auspices of Donald Trump. And the purpose of the Ukrainian delegation's trip was precisely to meet with Donald Trump. Trump managed to formally achieve the demands he made on his European allies, for example, to increase defense spending to 5% within NATO," Bortnyk noted.
The political scientist added that the principle on which the agreements on defense spending were reached does not guarantee the achievement of such an indicator in the near future. In addition, it is extremely difficult to predict what will happen in 10 years, while such capacity building will take place.
"We understand perfectly well that, as it is done, no one guarantees that such an indicator will be achieved. 1.5% of GDP will go to infrastructure, including bridges, roads and other social investments made by European governments. This money will also be allocated to help Ukraine. And only 3.5% will go directly to defense, but there is also a big problem here, because this increase in funding will be stretched until 2035. And what will happen in 5 or 10 years is unlikely that anyone will be able to reliably predict," Bortnyk explained.
Meeting between Zelenskyy and Trump
Yesterday, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with US President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the NATO summit. He called it "meaningful" and indicated that they "covered all really significant issues", including a ceasefire, peace and protection of Ukrainians.
"A long and meaningful meeting with President Trump. We covered all really significant issues. I thank Mr. President, I thank the United States. We talked about how to achieve a ceasefire and real peace. We talked about how to protect our people. We appreciate the attention and willingness to help bring peace closer," Zelenskyy wrote on social networks.
For his part, US President Donald Trump said that during the meeting he did not talk to Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy about a ceasefire and said that the Ukrainian leader was kind.
"I just wanted to ask about his affairs. We had tough times, but he was very kind. I was very happy to see him. It was a great meeting. I think it's a great time to end the war," Trump said.
According to Ruslan Bortnyk, the meeting between Zelenskyy and Trump, although generally quite positive, did not have any specific consequences regarding the adoption of proposals with which the Ukrainian side arrived at the NATO summit in The Hague.
The meeting between Zelenskyy and Trump was interesting. On the one hand, Trump spoke positively about the President of Ukraine, which had not been the case for a long time. He said that he is a brave man, that it was a wonderful conversation. And on the other hand, the main thing with which we came to this meeting (the proposal to jointly develop drone systems, the purchase of several Patriot systems for German money in the USA), was taken into consideration, but we did not receive a definite answer
On the other hand, according to the expert, Trump's rhetoric was also softer than expected. In particular, he did not demand that the Ukrainian leader make any concessions to russia.
"At the same time, Trump abandoned his pressure on Ukraine. Many expected that Trump would demand that Zelenskyy make some concessions in the negotiations with moscow. This also did not happen," Bortnyk stressed.
He added that the decisions of the NATO summit in The Hague did not provide for specific mechanisms for their implementation, so there is a risk that the achievements at this summit may be temporary.
"In general, there was a visually positive atmosphere at the summit. At the same time, there was a shift in emphasis in the US cooperation with European NATO allies, but without specific mechanisms for achieving it. This may mean that the achievements at the summit in The Hague may be extremely temporary," Bortnyk summarized.
Ukraine is not expected in NATO
On the sidelines of the summit in The Hague, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said that the Alliance will support Ukraine on its irreversible path to NATO membership.
"We stand with Ukraine in its pursuit of peace and will support it on its irreversible path to NATO membership," Rutte said.
However, whether NATO is really waiting for Ukraine in its ranks is an open question. In particular, Rutte's words are not reflected in any way in the Declaration adopted by the NATO countries as a result of the summit.
"Rutte can say whatever he wants. You have to look at the document, at the Declaration, which reflects the position of all NATO members. Ukraine wants to focus on the positive aspects, but the document is a document," Bortnyk explained.
He added that analyzing all NATO documents on Ukraine over the past 10 years, one can see a kind of "wavy" transition – from the roadmap, candidacy for NATO, which was declared in 2023 and 2024, and now just a statement of fact of assistance to Ukraine, but without defining political prospects.
At the same time, the political scientist stressed that this decision may also be temporary. It is quite possible that this position is maintained for further negotiations with russia on a ceasefire.
This decision may be temporary. Today, it is conditioned by Trump and the negotiation process on Ukraine. Trump can show this to putin as a concession, saying – we have done it, now you have to agree to a ceasefire
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