Will Putin exploit the split in the West - the risk of an attack on NATO is growing
Kyiv • UNN
Political scientist Taras Zahorodnii warned of possible Russian attacks on the Baltic states and Poland. The Kremlin may use the lack of Western unity to test NATO.
Against the backdrop of tensions between the US and Europe and discussions about a possible reduction of Washington's role in NATO, Russia may try to exploit the situation for escalation. In particular, this could even involve potential strikes on Alliance countries. Political scientist Taras Zahorodnii stated this in a comment to UNN.
The split of the West as an opportunity for the Kremlin
The intensification of contradictions between the US and European allies creates a dangerous window of opportunity for Russia. Especially against the background of statements about a possible reduction of Washington's role in NATO.
The expert emphasizes that not even the US withdrawal from the Alliance, but the very signal of weakening their participation, can fundamentally change the balance of power.
If Russia sees that the US is distancing itself or reducing its role in NATO, it may try to take advantage of this. The most dangerous scenario is an attack on Alliance countries, with the expectation that the response will not be sufficiently tough or swift.
According to him, the Kremlin may act not necessarily through a full-scale invasion, but through targeted or hybrid strikes.
Baltic States and Poland - potential targets
The expert names the Baltic states and Poland as one of the most vulnerable areas. There, Russia may try to test how effectively the principle of collective defense works.
Russia may attack NATO countries, understanding that there is a high probability of a weak or delayed reaction. For example, it could be a strike on the Baltic states or even on critical infrastructure in Poland. This will not necessarily be a classic war - one powerful strike is enough to test the Alliance's reaction.
In this context, Estonia, particularly the city of Narva, where a significant part of the population is Russian-speaking and may be subject to the Kremlin's informational influence, attracts special attention. Such regions could potentially be used as a pretext for provocations or hybrid operations.
The risk also remains in Latvia and Lithuania, where there are sensitive areas in terms of security and informational influence.
Europe without the US - the problem is not just about money
According to Zahorodnii, the key problem is not funding, but the readiness of European countries for real military action.
Without the US, NATO effectively does not exist. About 70% of the Alliance's military power is the United States. Europe can increase budgets, but the question is different: are they ready to fight? Are they ready to shoot at Russian troops? That's where all the talk ends.
He also draws attention to the weakness of political will in Europe.
We see how Europe reacts - virtually not at all. Without the US, they are unable to make decisions quickly. This is the main problem that the Kremlin sees.
Is a new defense alliance possible and what is Ukraine's role?
Despite discussions about creating a European defense alliance, the expert is skeptical about such prospects.
What new alliance? Everything comes down to a simple question: are European countries ready to fight Russia? If not, no alliances will work. Ukraine is currently the only country that is actually fighting and deterring Russia.
He adds that Europe could significantly improve the situation if it acted more decisively.
They could already take a key step now - significantly increase support for Ukraine or even join the hostilities. But this is not happening because there is fear and a lack of political will.
Is a US withdrawal from NATO realistic?
Regarding a possible US withdrawal from NATO, Zahorodnii considers this scenario unlikely in the short term. At the same time, the very discussions about it already have serious consequences.
Even without a formal withdrawal, a reduction in US participation or doubts about their guarantees could undermine trust in the Alliance and encourage Russia to take more aggressive actions. Ultimately, the expert emphasizes: the main danger is not in the split itself, but in how the Kremlin might interpret it.
If Moscow senses weakness and indecision in the West, it may resort to more risky scenarios, trying to test NATO's limits and change the balance of power in Europe.