Trump intensifies airstrikes on Iran but risks repeating old mistakes - Reuters

U.S. President Donald Trump has intensified U.S. airstrikes on Iran and threatened broader escalation, but analysts doubt that the increase in U.S. attacks will incline Tehran to make concessions. This is reported by Reuters, as conveyed by UNN.

Details

President Donald Trump has intensified U.S. airstrikes on Iran and threatened broader escalation, but there is little indication that the military strategy, which has already failed to secure concessions from Tehran, will succeed this time. With the collapse of the temporary ceasefire agreement reached a month ago, Trump finds himself in a difficult position, trying to weaken Iran's control over the vital Strait of Hormuz and force Tehran to accept his demands

It is noted that although both sides have so far managed to avoid a return to full-scale conflict, hopes for finding a way out of the conflict in the near future have faded due to the crisis, which has again led to a rise in global oil prices and sent shockwaves through financial markets.

The wave of tit-for-tat attacks continued for the sixth day on Thursday, while Iran signaled that it could push its Houthi allies in Yemen to close another key oil and gas strait – the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at the mouth of the Red Sea – if Washington strikes Iran's energy infrastructure, as Trump has threatened

Signaling growing frustration, Trump has discussed with aides, and in some cases publicly, the possible expansion of targets, including energy power plants and bridges, sending ground troops to seize the Iranian oil hub on Kharg Island, and bombing a deep-water facility linked to nuclear weapons, known as Mount Pickax.

Some of these options may be unrealistic due to high risks and the potential for domestic and geopolitical backlash. He has made similar threats before but then backed down.

But most analysts agree that serious escalation by the U.S. – aside from a dangerous and politically unacceptable ground invasion aimed at overthrowing Iran's rulers – would have little chance of being more effective in forcing Iran to change course than previous phases of the 4.5-month war, in which U.S.-Israeli strikes have killed senior leaders and significantly damaged military capabilities.

A senior Trump administration official, responding to a question from Reuters, said the president prefers diplomacy, but "the only language Iran understands is military might," and the U.S. will continue to hold it accountable for "terrorist acts" in the strait.

The collapse of the agreement comes amid pressure on Trump to end a war that has killed thousands, mostly in Iran and Lebanon, caused economic damage at home and lowered his approval ratings ahead of the midterm elections in November.

Negotiations aimed at turning the temporary agreement into a permanent peace deal have stalled, although there have been hints of diplomatic progress. Trump welcomed what he called the release of a U.S. citizen held in Iran, although Iran's judiciary denied the release or exchange of any prisoners.

Trump may hope that he can bomb Iran and bring it back to the negotiating table over its nuclear program, which he has made his primary military goal. But at the heart of the latest hostilities are different interpretations of what the previous agreement means for control of the strait, where Iran has shown during the war that it can block one-fifth of the world's oil supplies.

Recall

The United States early Friday morning expanded its campaign of airstrikes against Iran, striking new bridges and apparently collapsing a tower in a key Iranian port, part of U.S. President Donald Trump's threats to begin striking infrastructure to pressure Tehran into loosening its grip on the Strait of Hormuz. Iran launched new missile attacks against U.S. allied countries in the Middle East, including Qatar, a key mediator in this war.