"The path is narrowing": Reuters points to skepticism in the EU about Ukraine joining quickly
Kyiv • UNN
Skepticism is growing in the EU about Ukraine joining quickly due to the war, corruption, the country's size, and opposition from certain states. Kyiv insists on the benefits of membership.
Joining the EU soon is an important goal for Ukraine, but in the wealthy bloc of 450 million people "there is skepticism about Kyiv’s prospects of achieving this goal." Reuters reports this, UNN writes.
Details
Some European leaders, the publication writes, have said they hope to admit Ukraine to the bloc within the next few years.
But in conversations with Reuters, "more than a dozen diplomats and officials from EU countries were privately more cautious, pointing to serious obstacles that Kyiv and the EU will have to overcome before Ukraine can join."
"You look around and realize that in many countries politicians do not expect Ukraine to join within 10 years," said Gerald Knaus, head of the European Stability Initiative think tank.
But any message that the EU is not taking Ukraine’s accession seriously could have a demoralizing effect on the country, "which nobody in Europe wants to see," said Knaus, an expert on EU accession.
Growing opposition
Even in straightforward cases, the publication notes, a candidate country needs years of negotiations and legal reforms to meet the EU’s political, democratic, and economic standards.
Ukraine "faces additional challenges, such as uncertainty over the outcome of the war, a history of deeply entrenched corruption, and Ukraine’s large size, which complicates the integration process," the publication writes.
Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Heorhii Tykhyi said that some skepticism in the EU was expected, but added: "Ukraine’s accession to the European Union is beneficial for the European Union."
"This is not simply Ukraine asking to join. Ukraine has the most combat-capable, battle-tested, and combat-ready army on the continent—one million people," he said.
"The obstacles facing the EU include the rise of populist parties that oppose Ukraine’s accession to the EU in some EU countries," the publication notes. Membership for a candidate country must be approved by all 27 EU states, and France, it is noted, is likely to hold a referendum on Ukraine’s membership application.
Only 47% of EU residents believe that Ukraine should join the EU in the coming years, compared with 69% in March 2022, according to a poll published in October by the German political foundation Bertelsmann Stiftung. In France and Poland, 57% of respondents opposed Ukraine’s membership in the coming years. In Germany, the figure was 59%, the publication notes.
A senior European diplomat, who asked not to be named to discuss sensitive political issues, said that "Ukraine’s accession is not a realistic prospect in the next few years."
Another said that "given the numerous national elections scheduled for next year, many governments will be too busy to make the case for the need to expand the bloc."
The United States opposes Ukraine joining NATO, so EU membership may be Ukraine’s best hope for a geopolitical victory after the war ends, political analysts say.
They say the aspiration for EU membership is also an incentive for Ukraine to implement democratic reforms.
Leaders pushing hardest for rapid accession, such as the leaders of the Baltic states, say that Ukraine will make the EU stronger and safer. Ukraine has a large, battle-hardened army with experience in drone warfare.
Along Poland’s border with Ukraine, some residents say that Ukraine’s EU membership would strengthen regional security, but Europeans should not have to bear the costs.
The EU has not published a recent estimate of the cost of Ukraine’s accession, and the amount will depend on the outcome of negotiations over market access and transitional arrangements, the publication writes.
But far-right politicians such as Marine Le Pen, one of the leaders in France’s presidential race ahead of next year’s election, are already highlighting the potential cost.
The Alternative for Germany party, which is leading public-opinion polls in Europe’s largest country, submitted a proposal to parliament in September calling on the government to rule out Ukraine joining the EU.
Ukraine's pre-war population of around 40 million would likely make it the EU's fifth- or sixth-largest state. Ukraine would gain considerable political influence in the EU, as EU decisions are made unanimously or under a voting system that gives greater weight to larger members, the publication notes.
Under the current accession terms, Ukrainians would eventually be able to move freely throughout the EU and work anywhere within it, while Ukraine would be entitled to receive substantial economic development grants from Brussels.
Such arrangements could be slowed or suspended during a transition period, and internal EU reforms might be needed to admit such a large state, one EU diplomat told Reuters, while some countries are signaling opposition to any changes that could diminish their own influence or power within the bloc.
Alternative approaches
Such concerns have prompted member states to put forward several proposals for bringing candidate countries closer to the EU before their accession and protecting the EU decision-making process after accession.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has proposed granting Ukraine a new status of "associated member" to allow Ukrainian officials to participate in EU summits and ministerial meetings, but not to vote.
Ukraine considers this idea unfair, as it would leave Ukraine without voting rights in the EU.
The European Commission, the EU's executive body, has proposed strengthening a policy of gradually integrating candidate countries into EU programs and economic sectors such as energy, transport, digital technology, and defense once they meet the criteria for each of them.
It has also proposed introducing restrictions on financial support and market access for "sensitive agricultural products" from Ukraine.