Russia's economy is losing billions of dollars due to Ukrainian long-range strikes – The Economist
Kyiv • UNN
Analysis by The Economist indicates a critical increase in the intensity of AFU attacks. The aggressor's revenues from energy exports have fallen by one third.
The Russian economy and military production are being significantly impacted by Ukrainian long-range strikes. The authoritative publication The Economist claims that this impact is much greater than previously thought, reports UNN.
Our data analysis suggests that Ukrainian strikes are more extensive and cause more damage to the Russian economy and military production than is commonly believed. Their intensity continues to grow
Ukraine is increasing the number of strikes
The publication examined data on 1,289 Ukrainian strikes obtained from the ACLED monitoring project. All strikes were carried out against targets located at least 100 km from the state border of the Russian Federation. The Economist points out that Ukraine has significantly increased the intensity of such attacks: while there were 335 such strikes from 2022 to the end of 2024, there have already been 658 in 2025. This year, their number could exceed 800. At the same time, it is noted that ACLED data may be incomplete, and based on a model relying on satellite data, the publication suggests that there are three times as many strikes. The discrepancy in numbers is due to the fact that Ukraine carries out repeat strikes on some facilities.
Such tactics cause economic damage in two stages: they complicate repairs and disable complex and valuable units, such as those for refining oil into fuel.
Economic damage is steadily growing
The tactics employed by Ukraine contribute to the diversion of funds toward expensive equipment repairs. Data from the Russian Central Bank shows that since the first quarter of 2024, bank lending to oil companies for refinery operations has increased by $22 billion. This is an annual growth rate of 26%, says Craig Kennedy of Harvard University, compared to an average of 12% for the rest of the civilian economy.
In the spring of this year, oil production in the Russian Federation had already fallen by 15% compared to last year. The Russian government introduced restrictions on the export of gasoline and aviation fuel to avoid shortages and keep prices low. If the strikes continue to disrupt refinery operations, the publication indicates, Russia may have to cut oil production later this year because it will be unable to process or sell all the oil produced, says Yaniv Shah of Rystad Energy, a data processing company.
According to estimates by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, a think tank in Finland, from January to April, Russia's fossil fuel export revenues were 4.6% lower than a year earlier.
The results of The Economist's own research show that since June 2025, Russia has been earning less from fossil fuels than current Brent oil prices would suggest, and that the deficit is widening. Between June and December 2025, the country's fossil fuel export revenues were $18 billion, which is 12% less than normally expected. In the first four months of 2026, they were 34% lower.
"Dramatic footage of the strikes is useful. It brings the war closer to ordinary Russians far from the front line. It also demonstrates that Russia is not invincible," the article says.
The strikes are already causing billions of dollars in damage to the Russian economy; if Ukraine can increase the pace and depth of the strikes, the consequences could become even more palpable.
"Can Ukraine maintain the pace? Faster, larger, and more accurate weapons will strike harder and help expand its range. Ukraine is working on this. Its new Flamingo cruise missile reportedly has a range of 3,000 km, and its ballistic missiles could soon enter mass production. Meanwhile, small but continuous attacks will continue to disperse Russian aircraft, disrupt repair work, and force it to defend locations that were once safely out of reach," the authors conclude.