Russian recession has collapsed Belarus's economy - intelligence
Kyiv • UNN
In the first quarter of 2026, Russia's GDP fell by 0.3%, while Belarus's fell by 0.4%. The reasons were the high interest rates of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and Minsk's deep dependency.
The Russian economy ended the first quarter of 2026 with a contraction, dragging Belarus down with it. This was reported by the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine, according to UNN.
Details
It is noted that following the results of the first quarter, the Belarusian economy contracted by 0.4%, and the Russian economy by 0.3%. At the same time, both countries entered 2026 with optimistic forecasts: Minsk expected growth of 2.8%, and Moscow 1.3%. The first quarter buried these expectations.
The situation was worsened by the Russian monetary authorities' fight against inflation. The Central Bank of Russia raised the key interest rate, which sharply increased the cost of loans for business and industry. The result is a slowdown in production in an already weak economy,
It is indicated that since Belarus is tightly tied to the Russian market, it feels the crisis along with its neighbor—and without its own choice of an exit strategy. Thus, the ambitious five-year plan for 15% growth now looks like a fiction; instead, the country is threatened by stagflation: the economy is falling while prices are rising.
This combination is already reflecting on the wallets of Belarusians. Over the past year, a Polish grocery basket cost only 8% more than a Belarusian one, whereas just a few years ago the gap reached 30%. If the trend continues, Belarusian stores may become more expensive than Polish ones,
They predict that even the end of the war will not provide Russia with a quick recovery due to deep structural problems.
"And for Belarus, the consequences may turn out to be even more painful: while Russia 'feeds' the Belarusian economy during the war, after it, it will look for what to take from there. Primarily—human capital and a share of the Belarusian market, displacing local business in favor of Russian business," the intelligence service concludes.
Recall
According to forecasts by the Foreign Intelligence Service, the Russian bond market is approaching a wave of defaults, which could cause investors to lose their savings invested in corporate debt.