"Lukashenko is afraid of losing power" – political scientist assesses the chances of Belarus entering the war against Ukraine
Kyiv • UNN
The political scientist called Belarus's entry into the war unlikely due to Lukashenko's fear of protests. The country's army has been depleted by the transfer of equipment to Russia.
Despite regular statements about the possible involvement of Belarus in the war against Ukraine, such a scenario currently appears unlikely. The self-proclaimed president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, is trying to balance between Kremlin pressure and the fear of internal destabilization in his own country. This opinion was expressed in a commentary for UNN by international expert and candidate of political sciences Stanislav Zhelikhovsky.
Belarus is already an accomplice in the war
The expert emphasized that Belarus has effectively been participating in the war since 2022, as it provided Russia with its territory, infrastructure, and airspace for the invasion.
It should be understood that Belarus is, in one way or another, a co-aggressor with Russia, as it voluntarily provided its territory, airspace, and infrastructure for the attack on Ukraine. That is, we are talking about rear-area complicity in Russian aggression,
At the same time, he noted that the direct involvement of the Belarusian army in combat operations is a much more complex issue.
Back in 2022, there was talk about the possibility of opening a second front from the direction of Belarus. At that time, there was active discussion about Putin's pressure on Lukashenko to intervene directly in the war. But this never happened,
Lukashenko fears the reaction of society
Zhelikhovsky cites the internal situation in Belarus as one of the main reasons why Minsk has not yet entered the war directly.
The majority of Belarusian citizens are categorically opposed to direct participation in the war against Ukraine. This is confirmed by independent sociological research. For Lukashenko, this is a very unpopular decision,
The expert recalled that in 2022, sabotage had already occurred on the territory of Belarus when there was a threat of invasion.
At that time, there were bombings of railway tracks and other facilities. We cannot say for sure who was behind these actions, but it is quite likely that they were Belarusians who did not support the war against Ukraine,
Minsk fears an internal explosion
According to the political scientist, Lukashenko also fears a repetition of an internal crisis similar to the 2020 protests.
The memory of the 2020 events in Belarus is alive. If mobilization begins and Belarusian men start returning home in coffins, it could very quickly revive anti-regime sentiments,
Zhelikhovsky also drew attention to the problem of the loyalty of the army itself.
Lukashenko is not confident in the loyalty of the officer corps under real combat conditions. There is a high risk of desertion or even Belarusian military personnel defecting to the side of Ukraine,
He recalled that Belarusian volunteers, including the Kalinouski Regiment, are already fighting on the side of Ukraine.
This can also influence the mood within Belarus itself,
The Belarusian army has lost part of its resources
According to Zhelikhovsky, over the years of the war, Belarus has actively transferred equipment and ammunition to Russia, which has weakened its own military potential.
Belarus has been actively emptying its warehouses, transferring heavy armored vehicles, artillery, and ammunition to Russia. Its army is largely depleted,
He also emphasized that the Belarusian military lacks real combat experience.
They conduct exercises, including joint ones with Russia, but that is not the same as a real war. And this too can affect the psychological state of the military,
Lukashenko's army has become a tool for maintaining power
The expert believes that currently, the security structures of Belarus primarily perform an internal function for Lukashenko.
In fact, the Belarusian army has turned into an internal guard for the Lukashenko regime. He needs it to control the situation inside the country and to demonstrate force on the borders with NATO,
According to Zhelikhovsky, this is precisely why direct entry of Belarus into the war is currently unlikely.
I believe that at present, a situation in which Lukashenko activates his army for the war against Ukraine is unlikely,
Lukashenko understands the risks to his own regime
Separately, UNN asked the political scientist whether Lukashenko could be considered a certain deterrent factor for the Kremlin. Zhelikhovsky replied that Minsk's current position is indeed beneficial to Ukraine, but not because of Lukashenko's sympathies.
It is beneficial to us that Lukashenko, fearing for his own power, does not try to attack us. But this does not mean that he is a friend of Ukraine,
The expert also recalled that Ukraine has the capability to strike Belarusian territory in the event of direct aggression.
Belarus understands perfectly well that in the event of entering the war, its infrastructure, refineries, military plants, and logistics facilities will become legitimate targets. And this could cause chaos and the final destabilization of the Lukashenko regime,
The Kremlin may also doubt the expediency of a new front
In conclusion, the expert suggested that even in Moscow, they may understand the risks of opening a new front.
It is still a big question whether Putin is actually actively pressuring Lukashenko to enter the war right now. The Kremlin may also understand that such an adventure could only worsen the situation for both Belarus and Russia itself,