The British publication The Telegraph named three possible scenarios for "peace talks" on Ukraine in Istanbul. This is reported by UNN.
Details
The authors of the material note that these negotiations could be the most important event since the invasion of Putin's troops into Ukraine.
Three scenarios that could play out in Istanbul
The publication made a forecast regarding the probability of implementing each of the three scenarios of likely Ukrainian-Russian negotiations.
Scenario one. Probability - 1/5
Zelenskyy and Putin sit down at the negotiating table, which will be their first personal meeting since December 2019.
The two men cannot help but hide their disgust for each other, but have agreed to the meeting due to pressure from Mr. Trump. The US President also arrives in Istanbul for a day, which he believes could be historic. Acting as a mediator, the US gives each of the warring leaders the opportunity to state their position on peace.
Zelenskyy lays out his well-known position: Russia must agree to an unconditional 30-day ceasefire before they can hold any meaningful peace talks.
The Ukrainian president is firmly convinced that Trump and Kyiv's European allies also believe that the process should look like this.
Putin has another plan. He reiterates his main points: Zelenskyy is an illegitimate leader of Ukraine and should not be allowed to negotiate.
Instead, he says, the only negotiations that should take place are between officials from Moscow and Washington, where they will agree on a change of government in Kyiv, a written agreement preventing Ukraine's membership in NATO and limiting the size of the country's armed forces.
At this point, Trump will have to decide who he sees as the main obstacle to peace and act accordingly.
Scenario two. Probability - 4/5
Zelenskyy keeps his word and arrives in Istanbul, where he claims he is ready to meet with Putin to discuss ending the war.
But the Russian officials who arrived in the Turkish city are not of the highest level: it is a delegation consisting of Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, former Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu and senior aide Kirill Dmitriev.
The President of Ukraine states that he will not meet with anyone from the Russian side except Putin, and keeps his word.
Reluctantly, Zelenskyy's team of chief aides is sent to meet with their Russian counterparts in the hope that Trump will continue to see Putin as the main obstacle to peace.
After a series of brief talks, a small American team reports to its president that it really believes the Russians are to blame for the war.
What follows is a series of calls to European foreign ministers to prepare a huge package of sanctions targeting oil exports and the banking sector, which they believe will be enough to bring Putin back to the negotiating table.
Scenario three. Probability - 2/5
Putin has convinced the US president that he was too busy to fly to Istanbul, despite offering the city as a venue for peace talks.
The Russian delegation tells Steve Witkoff, the US interlocutor with the Kremlin, that Zelenskyy did not meet with them and is therefore opposed to the White House's peace efforts. Officials from Kyiv and Europe will argue the opposite, but Trump has already made up his mind.
Recall
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin will not participate in the Ukrainian-Russian negotiations in Istanbul on May 15. The Russian delegation will be headed by Putin's aide Vladimir Medinsky.
In turn, US President Donald Trump also decided not to go to Turkey for the Ukrainian-Russian "peace" talks. At the same time, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has already arrived in Turkey.