The enemy is feeling the impact of Ukraine’s deepstrikes: some components of Russia’s exports in August fell by 80%, the oil refinery in Kstovo has halted operations, and Russia’s Black Sea Fleet is effectively trapped in Novorossiysk. Why long-range strikes are having an increasingly strong impact on the enemy’s ability to wage war was examined by UNN.
Following a briefing by the head of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, Oleh Ivashchenko, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine’s deepstrikes—long-range strikes against Russia’s military, industrial and oil facilities—were highly effective.
"Military intelligence confirms the high effectiveness of our deepstrikes, in particular against Russian military production facilities and oil-industry facilities," Zelenskyy wrote.
Impact on the Russian economy
One of the most telling results concerns the Russian economy. President Zelenskyy said that the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine had obtained internal Russian documents indicating that, in August alone, certain components of exports from the aggressor country fell by 80%.
The president stressed that this means direct losses not only for Russia’s federal budget, which finances the war, but also for Russian regions. According to intelligence data, some of their budgets were already on the verge of bankruptcy even without this.
Thus, the effectiveness of deepstrikes is already extending far beyond the physical destruction of an individual facility. Strikes against oil, port and logistics infrastructure undermine Russia’s ability to sell resources, earn foreign-currency revenue and replenish its budget.
The Black Sea Fleet has been driven into Novorossiysk
Another result of Ukraine’s strikes, recorded by the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, concerns the sea. The Russian side acknowledges that the ships of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet are effectively trapped in Novorossiysk and unable to operate fully at sea.
The situation is already forcing Moscow to seek unconventional ways to protect its commercial and so-called shadow fleets. Among the options being considered by the Russian leadership are equipping civilian vessels with small arms and electronic-warfare equipment, as well as deploying military personnel on board.
Russia’s reduced missile capabilities
According to the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, a series of strikes on the "Kamensky Combine" enterprise in Rostov Region resulted in the Russians losing a significant portion of their capacity to produce solid-fuel engines for missiles.
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"Kamensky Combine" is part of Russia’s defence-industrial complex and produces solid rocket fuel for ammunition for the "Uragan," "Smerch" and "Tornado-S" multiple-launch rocket systems, as well as for other missile systems and aerial weapons.
The Defence Forces carried out repeated strikes on the enterprise during August alone. In particular, on 24 August, the General Staff confirmed a new strike on the combine and a fire on its premises.
Kstovo has halted operations, Yaroslavl hit again
One of the main targets of Ukraine’s deepstrikes remains Russia’s oil-refining industry—the source of fuel for the army and revenue for the Russian economy. According to the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, following Ukrainian strikes, one of Russia’s largest oil refineries in Kstovo, Nizhny Novgorod Region, halted operations. The facility’s capacity was approximately 17 million tonnes of oil per year.
And on 28 August, the Yaroslavl "Slavneft-YANOS" oil refinery was also hit. Zelenskyy said that the target was located approximately 1,000 km from the front line.
The Defence Forces used, among other things, long-range FP-1 UAVs produced by Fire Point in the strike. The total capacity of the Yaroslavl oil refinery is approximately 15 million tonnes of oil per year. The facility produces petrol, diesel and aviation fuel, as well as other petroleum products.
It is known that the strike hit the AVT-3 primary oil-refining unit, with a capacity of 6.2 million tonnes per year. This accounts for approximately 40% of the facility’s total capacity. Accordingly, taking the unit offline could significantly reduce primary oil refining at the plant.
Thus, the Kstovo and Yaroslavl oil refineries alone have a combined capacity of approximately 32 million tonnes of oil per year. At the same time, according to the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, the Kstovo plant has already been shut down, while the consequences of the new strike on the Yaroslavl refinery are still being clarified.
"Crimean switch off"
A long-range campaign is simultaneously unfolding in Ukraine’s temporarily occupied territories. On August 28, Commander of the Unmanned Systems Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Robert Brovdi reported that, during August 26–28 alone, the SBS “Birds” had hit 21 power facilities and the Luhansk Thermal Power Plant in Shchastia.
The list of reported targets includes substations with capacities of 220, 150, and 110 kV in the occupied territories of the Luhansk, Donetsk, and Kherson regions and Crimea, as well as a number of gas distribution stations.
According to Brovdi, since the start of the SBS operation “Crimean Switch Off,” 315 power facilities have already been hit in Crimea and other temporarily occupied territories.