russia will try to capture Donetsk and Luhansk regions this year, and may target Zaporizhzhia - ISW
Kyiv • UNN
russia's main military goal for 2024 remains the complete capture of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine, with plans to launch an offensive in the summer of 2024 and potential attempts to seize Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, and Sumy regions.
russia's main military goal for the current year is the complete capture of Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine. This is stated in the report of the Institute for the Study of War, UNN reports.
Details
ISW analysts write that this is evidenced by the plan for an offensive operation to begin in the summer of 2024.
It is noted that this was also confirmed by the commander of the Land Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Pavliuk. According to him, the russian military will also try to occupy Zaporizhzhia region if they manage to capture Donbas.
ISW also quotes Vadym Skibitsky, the deputy head of Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate, as saying that the Kremlin has not abandoned its plans to seize Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
Pavlyuk said that russian forces also have a plan to capture Kharkiv and Sumy, but noted that it is unclear how serious the enemy's plan is and whether they will succeed in capturing both cities.
According to ISW, it will be difficult for the russians to capture Kharkiv, but a russian offensive in the area is likely to draw back and consolidate Ukrainian forces from other parts of the front line.
Pavlyuk also said that Ukrainian forces are doing everything possible to stop russia's attempts to capture Chasiv Yar, but noted that the occupiers have a 10:1 artillery advantage over Ukrainian forces and "complete air superiority.
Skibitsky noted that russian troops will not be able to capture Chasiv Yar in the near future, although it is probably a matter of time, which is in line with the assessment of ISW analysts.
ISW also estimates that the first shipments of U.S. military aid arrived in Ukraine earlier this week, although it will likely take several more weeks before Western weapons and ammunition reach the frontline areas in full.
