Over $30 billion in a month - war with Iran exposed the crisis of the defense industry
Kyiv • UNN
The coalition spent $26 billion in 16 days to intercept cheap drones. Experts criticize the use of multi-million dollar missiles against Shaheds.
The first weeks of the war with Iran became a serious signal for the West – even with technological superiority, modern conflicts rapidly deplete resources. The intensity of hostilities and the scale of high-precision weapons use showed that the Western countries' defense-industrial complex might not be ready for a prolonged confrontation of this level. This is stated in the report of the analytical center RUSI, as reported by UNN.
Cost imbalance – expensive missiles against cheap targets
Operation "Epic Fury" demonstrated a key problem of modern warfare – a sharp imbalance of costs. The coalition is forced to use missiles worth millions of dollars to intercept Iranian drones and missiles, which are many times cheaper.
In fact, each intercepted drone or missile costs tens of times more than the weapon itself. This approach yields results in the short term, but in the long term, it creates a critical burden on reserves and production.
According to the Payne Institute, in the first 16 days of the conflict, the coalition used 11,294 munitions worth approximately $26 billion.
War of attrition – the pace of attacks has decreased, but the pressure has not disappeared
After the initial massive strike – over 5,000 munitions in the first 96 hours – the conflict entered a phase of attrition. This means that the parties are no longer trying to achieve a quick result, but are focusing on gradually depleting each other's resources.
Although the intensity of Iranian attacks has decreased by 80–90%, they remain regular and systemic. Starting from the fifth day, Iran conducts an average of about 33 missile and 94 drone attacks daily.
This pace does not seem critical in the short term, but it is precisely what creates long-term pressure on air defense systems and interceptor reserves.
Scale of expenditures – missiles that are becoming increasingly scarce
The use of weapons in the first weeks of the war already seems unprecedented. Among the most famous examples:
• 535 Tomahawk missiles;
• 912 JASSM missiles;
• over 320 ATACMS and PrSM;
• 8 GBU-57 bunker-buster bombs.
Separately, it is worth highlighting the scale of air defense use – they became one of the main cost factors.
• 1285 Patriot PAC-3 interceptor missiles were used by Persian Gulf countries;
• 519 Patriot PAC-2/3 missiles were used by the US and allies;
• 340 missiles for THAAD systems;
• 431 missiles for Aegis systems.
In total, for known air defense systems alone, over 2500 interceptor missiles were used in 16 days, and the war has been going on for almost a month, meaning the number is even higher.
Ukrainian experience against "expensive war"
The RUSI report specifically notes the reaction of Ukrainian military advisors in the region. They critically assessed the coalition's approach to resource use.
Ukrainian military called it a thoughtless waste of ammunition
This assessment is based on Ukraine's experience, where since the beginning of the full-scale war, asymmetric solutions have been actively sought – cheaper drones, combined attacks, the use of mobile air defense groups.
In fact, the Ukrainian approach is to minimize the cost of destroying a target, while in the Middle East, the opposite trend is observed.
We remind you that UNN had a conversation with a military officer who is in contact with Ukrainian instructors in the Middle East.
Ukrainian military personnel working with allies in the Middle East are shocked by the level of air defense application and drone combat tactics by the United States. Despite technological superiority, the American army makes critical mistakes that Ukraine has long corrected at the cost of war. This was stated in a comment for UNN by reserve officer of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and military expert Andriy Kramarov.
The expert said that Ukrainian military personnel were impressed by the allies' approaches to modern warfare. Especially – the use of air defense.
When they saw the shootdown protocols – how a target is fixed, how a decision is made – they were simply shocked. I talked to them, and they really said – "we sat there and didn't understand how one could fight like that"
One of the biggest shocks is the cost of intercepting targets. According to the expert, the allies use expensive missiles where Ukraine uses significantly cheaper solutions.
They can launch several SM-6 missiles at one "Shahed". One such missile costs 6–8 million dollars. This is nonsense
Another example is the incorrect use of Patriot systems.
They use PAC-3 – these are missiles for ballistic targets – against ordinary air targets. It is not designed for this. It's like hammering a nail with a microscope
Despite powerful equipment, without proper tactics and a systematic approach, it does not yield effective results. That is why Ukraine's role as a bearer of real combat experience is only growing.
Strategic consequences – a challenge for the West
RUSI analysts emphasize that the current situation is an alarming signal for Western countries. If even a limited conflict can lead to expenditures of tens of billions of dollars in a few weeks, then a full-scale major war can become economically exhausting even for the strongest states.
The key problem is not only the volume of expenditures but also the speed of production. The production of modern missiles takes months or even years, while their use in war occurs in days.
Thus, the war with Iran has shown a new reality – victory in a modern conflict is determined not only by technology but also by the ability to withstand a long-term economic and resource burden. And it is in this aspect, according to experts, that the West today faces a serious challenge.