The blockade of shipping in the Black Sea is increasingly disrupting global grain supplies and forcing the largest importers to seek alternative suppliers. Russia and Ukraine account for more than a quarter of global wheat trade, so further escalation could trigger another surge in food prices, Bloomberg reports, writes UNN.
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Supplies through the Black Sea have sharply declined following intensified attacks on ports, grain terminals, elevators, and vessels. According to SovEcon, combined wheat exports from Ukraine and Russia in July–September may amount to approximately half of last year’s volume.
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Egypt—the world’s largest wheat buyer—has not received grain from the Black Sea for about a month. Meanwhile, wheat prices have risen to their highest level in three years.
The Black Sea is being compared with the Strait of Hormuz
The region’s role in the global food market is being compared with the Strait of Hormuz’s role in the oil market. In addition to more than a quarter of global wheat trade, Ukraine and Russia account for about two-thirds of sunflower oil trade and approximately 10% of corn supplies.
Buyers are already shifting to France, the Baltic states, Romania, Argentina, India, Australia, and the United States. However, it is difficult to quickly make up for the lost Black Sea volumes because of limited harvests, more expensive logistics, and a shortage of transport capacity.
The situation remains particularly difficult for Ukraine. The ports of the Odesa region usually handle about 90% of Ukraine’s grain exports, while alternative routes are unable to fully replace maritime transport.
In August, Ukraine’s agricultural exports fell to their lowest level since April 2022. Due to the accumulation of the new harvest, grain storage facilities in Ukraine could be filled as early as the beginning of November.
The EU warns that further disruptions in the Black Sea could trigger a new global food security shock, particularly for countries in Africa and the Middle East that depend heavily on Ukrainian and Russian grain.