Russia has exhausted its vast stockpiles of Soviet-era weapons during its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. At the same time, the flow of goods from military warehouses to the front line has now returned to pre-2022 levels, writes UNN with reference to Financial Times.
Details
According to an analysis of logistics data by the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE) Institute, supplies originating near major Russian storage facilities are projected to decrease from a peak of 242,000 tons in 2022 to 119,000 tons in 2025.
KSE analyst Pavlo Shkurenko said the decline indicates depleted stocks: "Russia is now sending less material for restoration and repair than we know repair stations can handle. The first would have been better quality and easily restorable equipment."
Since 2022, Russia has sought to re-equip mothballed equipment so that it can be sent to the front. A large number of T-72 and T-80 tanks, first used in the 1970s, have been deployed in Ukraine. Even some T-54 tanks, which began mass production in the late 1940s, participated in combat operations.
Military analyst Franz-Stefan Gady from Vienna expressed caution regarding interpreting the reduction in armored vehicle supplies to the front as a sign that the Russians are "losing combat capability."
Russia's tactics have changed, and it now uses less of such equipment. In addition, "the Russian armed forces are also spending significant funds on creating new stockpiles."
KSE's analysis of logistics data also shows how Russia is becoming increasingly dependent on its allies in Asia as its resources are depleted. Its domestic defense industry now relies on supplies from China, while the army receives most of its ammunition from North Korea.
Measured by weight, about 52% of supplies labeled as "explosive materials" to Russian arsenals in 2024 came from Nakhodka, a port region on the Sea of Japan used by North Korea. Supplies from this region increased from zero before the war to 250,000 tons by 2024.
KSE analyst Lukas Reisner said that the dependence on North Korea was a "striking contrast" to the image of self-sufficiency that Russia tries to project.
KSE's analysis confirms that of Ukraine's military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov, who stated this month that 40% of Russian ammunition comes from North Korea.
A South Korean intelligence assessment also showed that North Korea sent 28,000 containers to Russia. Pyongyang is also known to have sent ballistic missiles and howitzers, as well as troops, to Russia.
I suspect they are relying on North Korean ammunition to maintain a steady rate of shelling on the front lines in Ukraine, while also allowing for the accumulation of high-quality Russian ammunition to prepare for any future conflict involving NATO.
KSE's analysis also found about 13,000 tons of explosive materials that, based on where they entered the logistics chain near the Caspian Sea, likely came from Iran.
KSE's analysis also shows that, while Beijing refrains from providing military aid to Moscow, China is now a key supplier to the Russian defense industry.
Supplies from border regions in eastern Russia to the locations of major military and defense production facilities have almost doubled to over 3 million tons since 2021.
Even if they claim not to send lethal aid, China supplies Russia with the equipment and components necessary to keep the war machine functioning.
Addition
Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi reported that Russia loses about a thousand servicemen daily in its attempt at a "summer offensive." He also reported to the Staff on the situation at the front and the need to strengthen UAVs.