Due to the war in the Middle East and reduced oil supplies, global fuel markets have come under pressure, and European suppliers have begun to cut quotas for Ukraine. Against this background, traders warn of a shortage of petroleum products and do not rule out a further increase in gasoline and diesel prices at Ukrainian gas stations, UNN writes.
Details
The war in the Middle East and the escalation around Iran have already begun to affect global energy markets. Due to the risks of oil supply disruptions and problems with maritime logistics, fuel prices in many European countries have risen significantly. Drivers in EU countries, where gasoline and diesel are significantly more expensive than in Ukraine, have felt this the most.
The reason for the price increase was the risks to oil supplies from the Persian Gulf, where some of the world's largest energy reserves are concentrated. In addition, experts fear possible problems with transit through the Strait of Hormuz - one of the most important oil transportation routes in the world.
In addition, according to specialized media, there is a change in the strategy of foreign suppliers in the oil product market. Due to energy instability, the governments of neighboring countries and large traders have begun to limit exports to form reserves for their own needs.
According to traders, one of the largest suppliers of light oil products to Ukraine - Orlen - has cut automotive diesel fuel batches from the Mažeikiai refinery by more than 50%.
The situation is also complicated by the planned shutdown for repairs of three Orlen refineries in Poland, Lithuania, and the Czech Republic in March. In the first week of March, preventive measures will begin at the Gdańsk refinery, from March 10 - at the Mažeikiai refinery, and at the end of the month - at the Unipetrol refinery in Kralupy.
Also during this period, two plants in Romania are stopping for repairs: the Petromidia refinery, owned by Rompetrol, and OMV Petrom. There will be no gasoline shipments from Rompetrol, and OMV Petrom offered insignificant volumes.
UNN spoke with a Ukrainian trader of light oil products about quotas for Ukraine, and what this could threaten.
Fuel quotas
As the head of the Naftotrade Podillya group of companies noted, due to the war in the Middle East, and accordingly, global oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz have stopped, which accounts for about 20% of total oil exports, there is a shortage of oil products.
"To leave a plant without oil refining is a global cost, that is, stopping, then starting... so they reduce capacity. Accordingly, in this case, a decrease in oil supplies is accompanied by a shortage. And Europe is also suffering from this war in the Middle East. As for the fact that the AMCU stated that gas stations are raising prices unauthorizedly - this is not true. Because in the same Poland, Germany, prices also rose by 20%. In some European countries, even more," the expert notes.
He notes that each European country monitors its own quotas, especially on the eve of the sowing campaign, and therefore, accordingly, reduces the export of oil products due to the need to supply its own market.
Accordingly, indeed, Ukraine's quota has been reduced by more than half compared to what it was. In smaller companies, it has been completely "cut" or they are given nothing, or literally one or two cars per week. Moldova has also suspended the export of light oil products to Ukraine. Their authorities have decided that until they accumulate reserves... it seems, 8 thousand tons of gasoline and 25 thousand tons of diesel, they will not be able to export to Ukraine.
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The largest fuel exporters to Ukraine
According to the expert, fuel is imported to Ukraine from two routes - southern and western.
"In this case, large batches of diesel fuel came to Ukraine from Greek factories. Also from Saudi Arabia... it seems, the Aramco plant, which was destroyed by Iranian "shaheds". Against the background of the war, the largest Saudi plant stopped production, so accordingly, this is already a shortage," the expert notes.
He notes that the largest fuel exporters remain Israel, Greece, Poland, and also Lithuania.
Course of events
The expert notes that "Brent oil quotes are very indicative in terms of fuel prices."
"Its growth per day was +5.8 dollars - that's 6.8%. That is, if I'm not mistaken, the last such jump was in 2019. The forecast of 100 (hryvnias per liter of gasoline - ed.) will not be accurate yet against the background of 91 dollars per barrel, but 80 (hryvnias - ed.) is realistic