Iran theoretically has the capability to launch a ballistic strike on the territory of Ukraine, but such a scenario, even if realized, is unlikely to have a large-scale military effect. Tehran has long-range missiles, but their actual characteristics, accuracy, and reliability raise questions. Moreover, such strikes would most likely be demonstrative in nature. Military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko told UNN in an exclusive comment.
Iran has missiles capable of reaching Ukraine
After Tehran's statements about a possible "response" to Ukraine, the likelihood of Iran using ballistic missiles is being discussed more and more frequently. This sounds especially acute against the backdrop of statements about a shortage of interceptor missiles.
According to Oleksandr Kovalenko, if the issue is assessed purely from a military-technical standpoint, Iran indeed has such capabilities.
"Iran has a fully developed lineup of short-range, medium-range, and long-range ballistic missiles. In particular, this includes missiles of the Khorramshahr family, some modifications of which, according to stated characteristics, may have a range of up to 4,000 kilometers. Theoretically, this is enough to reach the territory of Ukraine. But it is worth remembering that Iran has never used these missiles at maximum range, so the stated characteristics remain nominal. Moreover, the Iranian side, like Russia, is often prone to exaggerating the capabilities of its weapons," said Kovalenko.
According to the analytical project Missile Threat of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Khorramshahr is a family of Iranian medium-range ballistic missiles introduced in 2017. The basic version has a stated flight range of about 2,000 km and is capable of carrying a warhead weighing up to 1,500–1,800 kg. The latest modifications, in particular the Khorramshahr-4 (Kheibar), according to the Iranian side, have received an improved guidance system, a new generation liquid-fuel engine, and can be launched in a shorter time. However, it is impossible to independently confirm the characteristics claimed by Iran, including the possible range of over 2,000 km.
Source Missilethreat
The expert noted that for strikes on Ukraine, Iran would have to use either the Tabriz area or the central regions of the country.
"The Tabriz area is quite risky for the Iranians, as Israeli or American aircraft could operate there. Given the current situation around Iran, this is far from the safest place for launches. Therefore, if such strikes do occur, they will most likely be carried out from the central part of the country, and this already requires the use of maximum-range missiles," he explained.
The southern regions may be under threat, but there are questions about the accuracy of the missiles
According to Kovalenko, if Iran does decide to use ballistic missiles against Ukraine, the targets will most likely not be the central regions.
"I do not think that Kyiv will be the main target. It is much more likely that the southern regions of Ukraine – Zaporizhzhia or Dnipropetrovsk – could come under attack. They are geographically more reachable. But here another question arises – the accuracy of these missiles. Based on the results of the use of Iranian ballistic missiles against Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, it was evident that a significant portion of the missiles had a very large circular error probable. In many cases, they fell hundreds of meters or even more than a kilometer from the intended target," the expert noted.
At the same time, according to him, technical problems with the missiles themselves cannot be ruled out.
"We do not know how they will behave at a distance of over two thousand kilometers. There are questions about the reliability of the fuel system and the operation of all missile components at such a range. It cannot be ruled out that some missiles may simply fall along the way – into the Caspian or Azov Sea, or even on the territory of Russia," Kovalenko added.
Ukraine is unlikely to be able to intercept certain modifications of Iranian missiles
Assessing the capabilities of Ukrainian air defense, the expert noted that some types of Iranian ballistic missiles could become a very difficult target.
"Israel intercepted some Iranian missiles using THAAD exo-atmospheric systems, and others using Patriot systems. Some modifications have a warhead that separates into several elements, complicating their interception. This somewhat resembles the principle used in the Russian 'Oreshnik.' Unfortunately, Ukraine does not have THAAD systems, and areas that could potentially come under attack are not everywhere covered by Patriot. Therefore, the ability to intercept such missiles may be limited," he explained.
Recall that Ukraine is experiencing a critical shortage of missiles for Patriot systems, which is currently the only air defense system in our country capable of intercepting ballistic missiles. Ukraine, together with European partners, is working on creating an air defense system – FREYJA. The system will be based on the FP-7.x interceptor missile, produced by Fire Point. European partners, represented by a number of powerful defense manufacturers, such as the Swedish concern SAAB (manufacturer of Gripen fighters) or Eurosam (manufacturer of SAMP/T air defense), will provide their own components: command posts, radars, etc. However, deploying such a system requires time and close interaction among participants. As explained by Fire Point, one of the main obstacles has been European bureaucracy, but partners are making efforts to speed up all processes. It is expected that the system could carry out its first interception of ballistic missiles as early as the first half of 2027.
At the same time, speaking about the threat from Iran, expert Oleksandr Kovalenko emphasized that even if Iran uses ballistic missiles, it is unlikely to change the overall situation on the front.
"If such a strike does occur, it will be more situational and demonstrative in nature. We are not talking about dozens of missiles every night. Russia is already launching over a hundred ballistic missiles at Ukraine every month. If a few Iranian missiles are added to this, it will not change the overall picture of the war. At the same time, it will further free Ukraine's hands regarding participation in military operations against Iran," the expert noted.
Iranian ballistic missiles could sooner or later appear in the war against Ukraine
Oleksandr Kovalenko believes that even a possible strike would not become a fundamentally new stage of the war.
"To be frank, the appearance of Iranian ballistic missiles in the war against Ukraine was only a matter of time sooner or later. Russia constantly appealed to Tehran with a request to transfer ballistic missiles. But while North Korea agreed to such deliveries quite quickly, Iran took a different stance. Tehran was more interested not in money, but in obtaining modern military technologies from Moscow, so this process dragged on. That is why it cannot be said that the possible use of Iranian missiles came as a surprise - it was a scenario that had long remained likely," the expert emphasized.
At the same time, he does not expect massive and regular strikes.
"If such a launch does occur, it will most likely be demonstrative or situational in nature. This will definitely not be a story about dozens of missiles every night. Against the backdrop of the hundreds of ballistic missiles that Russia is already launching at Ukraine, a few more Iranian missiles will not strategically change the situation," Kovalenko said.
Ukraine has the capabilities for strikes on Iran, but there are geographical limitations
Kovalenko also commented on the issue of possible Ukrainian strikes on the territory of Iran.
"Technically, Ukraine has the capabilities to conduct such operations. But here another problem arises – the flight route. It is necessary either to cross the airspace of Turkey, Armenia, or Azerbaijan, or to fly through the territory of Russia and the Caspian Sea. This is a completely different level of complexity. If we talk about naval operations, the situation in the Caspian Sea is also much more complicated than in the Azov Sea, because vessels of Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Iran, and other states are actively operating there. But overall, Ukraine has such capabilities," he said.
Iran has effectively long been a party to the war
The expert emphasized that a possible strike by Iran would not mean the beginning of a new confrontation between Kyiv and Tehran.
"Iran has been a country unfriendly to Ukraine since 2022, when it began supplying 'Shaheds' to Russia. In fact, the deterioration of our relations began back in 2020 after the downing of the UIA plane. Therefore, now Ukraine, the United States, and Israel are effectively on the same side of the confrontation with Iran. If Tehran goes for a direct strike on Ukraine, it will only finally confirm the role it has long played in this war," Kovalenko summarized.