To date, about "15 countries are interested" in directly participating in the matter of providing security guarantees to Ukraine, said French Minister of the Armed Forces Sébastien Lecornu following a meeting of defense ministers of the five major military powers of the continent in Paris on March 12 to consider options for a new security architecture for Ukraine, UNN writes with reference to Le Figaro.
Details
"Neither Yalta, nor Budapest, nor Minsk..." - the publication writes. Following the meeting of E5 defense ministers, Lecornu called to "learn from the past" in order to provide Ukraine with reliable security guarantees. "The ball is in Russia's court," he added, while Ukraine accepted the principle of a ceasefire. This was the third meeting in the E5 format. After the meeting of 34 European and non-European chiefs of staff on Tuesday, France welcomed the opportunity to create a basis for discussions between representatives of the West, without the Americans, "on the future of Ukraine and the security of the continent". According to the French side, "there has been some relief," the publication writes.
As RFI notes, Lecornu noted that today "about 15 countries are interested" in directly participating in the matter of providing security guarantees to Ukraine.
Our chiefs of staff have begun to develop hypotheses to suggest to their political authorities to think about what this security architecture could be in order to consolidate a lasting peace. At this stage, 15 countries are interested in continuing this process, it is complex
This is too limited to "the presence of troops on Ukrainian soil," he warned. "There is also the Black Sea, the safety of nuclear power plants... All these issues will need to be discussed," he explained. The minister also assured that Europeans will face urgent needs that they will have to address to ensure the security of the continent: "land-air" defense, space, ammunition, early warning, joint procurement of equipment, etc. He also announced "in two weeks" a meeting of Western defense ministers without the Americans, which "mirrors" the meeting of chiefs of staff on Tuesday. As RFI clarifies, he said that a new meeting will be organized "within 15 days" with the participation of defense ministers of all interested countries.
"The French and the British took the initiative... As if to seal their agreement, the two ministers had dinner on Tuesday evening with their respective chiefs of staff, General Burkhard and Admiral Radakin. Both countries are eager to maintain the momentum, while others are hesitant. That is why they want to avoid the trap of the number of troops. Neither the French army nor the British army is able to provide enough soldiers in the long term to ensure a massive and sustained deployment," Le Figaro writes. "The first security guarantee is the Ukrainian army itself," Lecornu reiterated: "Its equipment, its training... The word demilitarization (of Ukraine) appears, but that is not the case," he insisted.
As RFI writes, speaking about the possible sending of peacekeepers to support peace in Ukraine, Lecornu mentioned at a press conference both the option of their stay on Ukrainian territory and the option of deployment on the territory of Poland, for example. And he emphasized that despite the fact that the media talks and writes the most about this measure, it is "far from the only one" in the "package" of security guarantees for Ukraine that is being discussed.
Other ministers confirmed, following Lecornu, that the "first security guarantee" for Ukraine will be its own army, which should be strengthened as much as possible.
"Without the ability to defend, Ukraine has no future", a demilitarized Ukraine cannot exist," emphasized Italian Minister Guido Crosetto.
"No European capital is considering sending troops to the Ukrainian front line. Differences remain between the different scenarios. Several options are still being considered, supported by different countries. An easy deployment that is less likely to be attacked by Russia, a more significant military presence to act as a deterrent, or a UN peacekeeping mission that would bypass Russian resistance to sending Western forces to Ukraine. There is also the American idea of sending only civilians within the framework of contracts signed by the United States for the development of Ukrainian subsoil," Le Figaro notes.
According to a Le Figaro source who followed the discussions, "this option seems to be the least effective way to dissuade Russia from continuing its offensive, even if the US administration seems "sincerely" convinced of the opposite." "I am skeptical," says Matthew Savill, director of military studies at the British think tank Rusi. - Thousands of American citizens were in Ukraine before February 2022 and they did not stop the Russians. In the event of another invasion, they are likely to leave the country, their employer will tell them to leave the country, or their insurance will be canceled or increased. The best we can hope for is that the American military will evacuate them, and the Russians will decide to avoid attacking American forces during this time," he explained.
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Other European military scenarios still have to overcome many obstacles to become "operational", the publication notes. Most states would only consider participating in an operation in Ukraine if they received US support. And here the general staffs disagree on the minimum conditions, the publication writes. "For some, no operation is possible without American intelligence or logistical support from the United States. Others are primarily concerned about US intervention in the event of escalation," the publication says.
"If they are asked something in advance, they will say nothing. But if there are problems, they will be there," a senior French officer suggested at the beginning of the year.
"The Atlantic Alliance will not be involved in any deployment. This is a red flag for Russia. But NATO remains the key cog in organizing the delivery of aid to Ukraine. For most Europeans, the Alliance remains the main security structure, and the United States is the main participant," the publication notes.
Joint declaration
Following the negotiations, the E5 defense ministers, as RFI notes, issued a joint declaration, which primarily emphasizes that "Europe's security is experiencing a turning point", "the balance of our peace is being revised to an extent unseen in recent decades." And, as reported, there is a section "Strengthening European support for peace in Ukraine", which states:
- Continue to support Ukraine so that it can defend itself today and deter Russian aggression in the future.
- Accelerate industrial cooperation projects in the field of defense with Ukraine, including development, production, joint procurement and maintenance. (…)
- Advocate for the continued role of the United States in supporting Ukraine, along with a significant contribution from Europe, coordinated through the Ukraine Defense Contact Group ("Ramstein") to promote interaction, promote unity of action and avoid duplication.
- Strengthen the role of European allies and NATO in responding to Ukraine's urgent needs (…).
- Encourage Ukraine to use available funding (…) prioritizing military needs (…).
- Work to create security guarantees for a lasting peace in Ukraine.
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