"The Tsar is afraid, but holding on" - is Putin weakening and what is happening inside Russia
Kyiv • UNN
Due to fear of assassination attempts, Putin has restricted travel and tightened control over the elites. Experts consider the regime stable despite growing internal tension.
Western media report that due to fear of a coup, Putin is hiding in bunkers and has restricted his travel. Russian intelligence services have tightened control over his inner circle and political elites.
Despite growing rumors of fears, internal tension, and possible conspiracies in the Kremlin, it is premature to speak of Putin's critical weakness at this time. At the same time, processes within the Russian system have already been launched and may have long-term consequences. Political scientist Oleh Lisnyi told UNN about this in an interview.
Putin's phobias and the atmosphere of distrust in his inner circle
Recently, reports have increasingly appeared in Western media about Putin's fear of a coup, conflicts among the elites, and growing criticism even among pro-Russian circles. However, according to the expert, these phenomena should be viewed more broadly—through the personality of the Russian leader himself.
A long stay in power forms a specific psychology where suspicion becomes the norm.
A long stay in power negatively affects the mental state of any leader. It is constant pressure and the understanding that even the closest inner circle can pose a threat. Putin is not unique in this sense—similar processes occurred with Stalin. The war only intensifies these phobias,
He adds that fears are gradually transmitted to the system as a whole.
The longer he is in power, the fewer people he considers safe. Hence the strict checks, isolation, and restriction of contacts. And this is not just his personal story—the inner circle adapts to these fears and amplifies them,
Is there a threat of a coup
Despite a large amount of talk about possible conspiracies, there are currently no real signs of an imminent collapse of the regime. Internal processes exist, but they are not on the surface.
I am not ready to say that Putin is currently in his weakest state. He is moving toward it, but definitely not right now. The fact that he is afraid is natural for this type of leader, but it does not yet mean that the system is falling apart,
He suggests that information leaks could be part of an internal struggle.
Perhaps this is an element of a power struggle between different groups, for example, the security forces (siloviki). They can discredit each other, understanding how Putin reacts. For him, any suspicion is a signal to act harshly,
Why Putin is still holding on
Even despite strikes on Russian territory, economic problems, and international pressure, the system continues to function. This is explained by both internal resources and external factors.
He continues to stand. If everything were fine for him, Ukraine would no longer exist. But there is no critical state either. There are problems, but the center is still strong,
At the same time, Russia receives situational "bonuses" that stabilize the situation.
For example, rising oil prices or external crises that play into his hands. These are things that were difficult to predict. They give him the opportunity to maintain the system,
Why Putin will not go for peace voluntarily
One of the key questions remains the possibility of ending the war. However, according to the expert, Putin will not do this voluntarily. The war has become part of his political identity.
He has tied himself so closely to the war that stopping it voluntarily would mean admitting weakness. And he won't be able to sell it as a victory under current conditions,
The only option is external coercion.
He can be forced into peace, but not one-on-one. This is only possible in interaction with Europe and in the presence of strong pressure. It is necessary that he simply has no options left,
War of attrition and the time factor
In current conditions, time remains the key factor. The war is entering a phase of attrition, where it is important to hold out longer than the opponent.
This is a classic law of war—you need to hold out at least one day longer than the enemy. And that is what is happening now,
He adds that even after a change of power in Russia, quick changes should not be expected.
I don't think that Russia will change drastically after Putin. But a period of instability, elite struggle, and possibly fragmentation will begin,
How Russia might collapse
The prospect of Russia's collapse, according to the expert, is real, but it will not necessarily follow the scenario of the USSR's collapse. An economic scenario looks more likely.
I think the collapse could happen according to an economic principle. Elites who control resources will separate and create their own centers of influence. These could be a kind of economic enclave,
At the same time, the factor of external influence will also play a role.
China already has great influence and can strengthen it without direct occupation. This is also one of the possible scenarios for Russia's transformation,
The system is cracking, but not yet falling
In summary, the current situation in Russia can be described as unstable but not critical. Internal processes are taking place, but they have not yet moved into an open phase.
The center is still strong. As long as it is strong, there will only be talk and dissatisfaction. Real changes will begin when the elites feel that the system no longer guarantees their safety,