Despite positive statements from US and Iranian leaders after the first round of negotiations, analysts warn of a high probability of the diplomatic process collapsing. The lack of clear agreements and new provocations from Tehran once again bring to the forefront the prospect of American airstrikes on Iranian military facilities. Bloomberg reports this, writes UNN.
Details
The schedule and specific terms of further cooperation remain unclear after the meeting, which Donald Trump called "very good" and Masoud Pezeshkian called "a step forward." However, fundamental differences in the parties' positions make a serious agreement unlikely. Iran insists on limiting discussions exclusively to its nuclear program, while Washington demands a complete abandonment of ballistic missile development, an end to support for radical groups, and a halt to internal repression.
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Over the weekend, the situation escalated due to the continued execution of protesters in Iran, which directly contradicts Tehran's previous assurances. In response, the US warned American vessels to avoid Iranian waters, which immediately caused a jump in oil prices and increased expectations of a direct military confrontation.
Impact of Israel and regional risks
An additional factor putting pressure on the negotiation process is Israel's position. During a White House meeting on Wednesday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to insist on even tougher conditions for Iran. The Israeli side believes that only maximum pressure and the threat of a силового scenario can force Tehran to make real concessions.
Experts note that time for diplomacy is rapidly running out, as the Trump administration is not ready for lengthy and fruitless discussions. Currently, American armed forces in the region are on high alert, awaiting a decision from the political leadership on further steps in the event of a complete failure of dialogue.