The Ukrainian energy system passed the first month of summer 2026 in a relatively stable but still vulnerable state. The summer season turned out to be easier than the winter one due to the absence of electric heating.
How energy workers managed to withstand the June loads, what condition the Ukrainian energy system is currently in, and where its weak points are, UNN investigated together with experts.
What condition is Ukraine's energy system in after the start of summer
At the beginning of summer, the Ukrainian energy system operated in a balancing mode between its own generation, imports, repairs, and the risk of new attacks.
On the one hand, in the warm season, solar power plants produce more, and the need for heat is lower. But these factors do not eliminate the deficits that can occur during peak hours or in certain regions.
Electricity market analyst at ExPro agency Daria Orlova, in a conversation with UNN , noted that the energy system passed the first month of summer quite well: the outages that occurred were mostly regional and related to attacks or accidents.
"If we talk about how we passed the first month, I rate it as quite good. As we see, outages were only regional, where there were strikes or some accidents at facilities, but energy workers restored the operation of these facilities quite quickly,"
At the same time, energy expert and head of the Union of Consumers of Utility Services Oleh Popenko, in an exclusive comment to UNN , emphasized the following:
"Even if there is a certain amount of electricity in the system, this does not guarantee stable supply in all regions. Part of the generation is lost, part is under repair, and the networks in many regions are damaged or overloaded."
Popenko explained that currently Ukraine partially covers peak load, but not only through internal generation, but also through electricity imports.
Kyiv imports electricity from Moldova, Romania, Slovakia, Hungary, and Poland. The largest volumes, according to the expert, come from Slovakia and Hungary. However, imports cannot fully replace the destroyed Ukrainian maneuverable generation, especially if the heat increases consumption in Europe itself.
Against this background, the European Union is unable to fully cover our electricity needs
Generation and capacities of the domestic energy system: what Ukraine currently possesses
The domestic energy system relies on nuclear, thermal, hydro, and renewable generation. Nuclear power plants provide base production but are not a tool for quickly covering peak loads. This requires thermal power plants, combined heat and power plants, hydroelectric power plants, and pumped storage hydroelectric power plants. It is these capacities that have suffered the most from attacks and are simultaneously most needed during hours of sharp consumption increases.
According to expert Daria Orlova, nuclear generation is trying to optimize repairs so that it operates as stably as possible during periods of greatest heat.
"Nuclear generation has optimized its repairs in such a way as to pass the summer more stably and operate with a larger composition during periods of greatest heat,"
At the same time, the repair campaign at nuclear power plants remains one of the factors reducing the supply of electricity on the market. And the peak of repairs falls precisely in June-July.
"July will be the peak of the repair campaign at nuclear power plants. Accordingly, the overall supply of electricity on the market is reduced, while at the same time consumption increases,"
Expert Oleh Popenko, for his part, drew attention not only to the volume of production but also to the limited capabilities of transmitting electricity to the consumer.
"The problem is different: even with the available generation of nuclear plants, it needs to be transmitted to the consumer somehow. Now we must also talk about the possibility of transmitting it,"
What condition are thermal and hydro generation of energy in Ukraine currently in
The most difficult situation, according to experts, remains with thermal and hydro generation. Thermal power plants and combined heat and power plants have been attacked multiple times by Russian drones and missiles. Some facilities are destroyed, some are damaged, some operate after repairs or with limitations.
Daria Orlova, answering this question, noted that repairs are ongoing not only at nuclear plants but also at thermal generation. Often these are emergency restoration works after winter damage.
"The repair campaign continues at other generation facilities, in particular at thermal power plants and combined heat and power plants. Moreover, these are, as a rule, emergency restoration repairs after damage this winter, and, accordingly, not all capacities are available to us now,"
And Oleh Popenko assessed the state of thermal generation as one of the most problematic as of now.
"Regarding thermal generation - this is a huge pile of problems. Most of our thermal power plants are destroyed,"
Hydroelectric power plants also remain critically important for balancing the energy system. They help cover peak load, but they themselves are regularly under threat of attack. After the destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant, Ukraine lost an important element of the system. Other hydroelectric power plants remain at risk of new strikes or operate after damage and repairs.
"We also have an important factor - these are hydroelectric power plants. Unfortunately, they are most often now, as I observe, under enemy attack, especially in Zaporizhzhia, in the more eastern regions, if you look from Kyiv. And they are important for the energy system because they cover peak load,"
In turn, the head of the Union of Consumers of Utility Services added that a significant part of hydro generation is in limited access.
"Most of our hydro generation either does not work or is under major repair,"
What is happening with Ukrainian renewable energy
In the summer period, renewable energy plays a more noticeable role, primarily thanks to solar power plants. They produce the most electricity during the day when the sun is shining and can partially support the system balance.
Daria Orlova emphasized that it is solar generation that helps Ukraine during daytime hours, and in certain periods even creates the opportunity for electricity exports.
"Now renewable energy sources play a very important role. We have enough solar power plants, wind power plants are being actively built. And the sun now during daytime hours, when it is produced, occupies a certain share even in the energy balance. And it is precisely because of solar generation that we can even export electricity,"
However, Oleh Popenko was more critical. He emphasized that the potential of renewable energy sources is limited by the state of the networks. Some facilities are located in temporarily occupied territories or are out of order due to enemy shelling. Another problem is that it is not always technically possible to transmit the generated electricity to the end consumer.
"The problem is that we do not have enough networks to transmit this electricity to the end consumer. We pay for this electricity, but the consumer does not see it,"
According to him, last year Ukraine paid significant funds for electricity from renewable energy sources, which was actually not consumed due to the impossibility of its transmission.
"Last year we paid 2 billion hryvnias for electricity that no one consumed because we could not transmit it to the end consumer,"
Therefore, renewable energy sources can be part of the solution to the deficit problem, but they will not completely replace thermal, hydro, or distributed generation. For a full effect, networks, energy storage, proper placement of new capacities, and the ability to balance the system in the evening are needed.
How repairs and preparation of power grids are taking place
Preparation for the next heating season includes generation repairs, restoration of substations, strengthening of facility protection, accumulation of equipment, preparation of networks for peak load, and development of distributed generation.
Orlova drew attention to the fact that after attacks, the state of generation and protection of electricity transmission and distribution facilities are important.
"Here we need to talk not only about generation but also about Ukrenergo facilities, this is the transmission system operator, and local oblenergo facilities and their protection. If Ukrenergo and local oblenergo ensure the protection of their substations, then, of course, the system situation will be better,"
According to her, generation companies have also adapted protection taking into account the weapons Russia used during previous attacks.
"They saw what strikes there were, what weapons were used, and also adjusted their protection to prevent the most negative consequences of the strikes,"
Oleh Popenko also believes that those responsible for the state of domestic power grids have drawn some conclusions after previous attacks, but considers them insufficient.
"Conclusions have been partially drawn. Still, if we go back to 2022, it was decided then to build shelters for substations. But whether conclusions have been fully drawn - it's hard for me to say, because I don't see it. We have not solved the issue of full sheltering of our electricity transmission and distribution facilities. We have not solved the problems of unprofitability and management of the most important energy facilities. We have huge problems with financing, there is not enough gas, there are problems with gas imports,"
A separate direction of preparing energy resilience in Ukraine has been the development of decentralized generation and energy storage systems. This is especially important for industry, which seeks to reduce dependence on the centralized system.
"Many have begun to actively develop decentralized generation, build new, smaller facilities. This is especially relevant for industry, when they build gas generation. Yes, it can be expensive in terms of electricity production, because they now purchase gas on the market, but they choose to be more energy independent,"
According to her, interest in energy storage systems, which can help balance the system between the daytime surplus of solar generation and the evening peak of consumption, is also growing now.
"Such a boom is now observed in energy storage systems. This is a great story for summer as well, because you can actually pump electricity produced during the day, in surplus, into a battery, and later use it in the evening when the sun sets but the demand for electricity increases,"
Is Ukraine's energy system ready for the heat test: what they say at 'Ukrenergo' and the relevant ministry
The official positions of 'Ukrenergo' and the Ministry of Energy remain cautious.
'Ukrenergo' emphasizes that the situation in the energy system can change throughout the day, and consumers need to monitor announcements from oblenergo. The company also called for shifting the use of powerful electrical appliances to daytime hours and reducing consumption in the evening.
The Ministry of Energy, in turn, focused on restoring damaged generation, international aid, supplying energy equipment, developing distributed capacities, and protecting critical nodes. The government announced plans to return part of the damaged capacities to operation and build new generation closer to the consumer.
The interlocutor of UNN, Daria Orlova, believes that systemic solutions regarding tariffs and meters are needed to reduce the load. This refers to incentives that will motivate consumers to use less electricity precisely during peak hours.
"I would talk about a transition, perhaps even to three-zone meters: at night electricity is cheaper, during the day it is the same as the tariff, and during peak hours, which are the morning and evening peaks, it is more expensive with some coefficient. And this monetary story stimulates people more to save electricity during peak hours,"
At the same time, the analyst emphasized that such a reform cannot be implemented quickly.
"This already requires a reformist approach, and you can't do it in one or two days, you can't change all meters. So here there are simply appeals to the population that it is important to consume less electricity during peak hours, not to turn on all appliances at once. This is a classic story, it applies to all hours,"
Oleh Popenko, for his part, believes that state plans should be assessed taking into account real constraints. Restoring a unit or substation on paper is easier than returning it to stable operation under the threat of new strikes. In addition, the key issue is delivering electricity to the end consumer.
There are plenty of problems. But we see positive movement in some areas and its absence in others
Reminder
Earlier UNN wrote that due to russian attacks and NPP repairs, a power deficit of up to 2.4 GW is expected in the summer. In case of heat and new destruction, the capacity shortage could reach 40%.