The draft extended financing program between Ukraine and the IMF envisages a package of changes aimed at strengthening public finances, enhancing anti-corruption policies, and improving governance. At the same time, if the memorandum is implemented, changes in the country's financial foundations will affect both business operations and the daily lives of citizens. What exactly might change, read in the UNN material.
The International Monetary Fund and the government of Ukraine have agreed at the expert level on a draft extended financing program for 48 months and a volume of $8.1 billion. The program is intended to become a financial foundation for further attracting partner assistance in the coming years.
Tax policy and digital platforms: what might change
In its current format, the program envisages updating approaches to tax policy, customs rules, the energy sector's operation, and the state's interaction with business. Most of the changes are aimed at increasing the budget's own revenues and making the economy more transparent. But despite the technical name of the documents, it is actually about things that can affect every family – from utility prices to the cost of online purchases or working conditions for individual entrepreneurs.
In particular, it is known that, in accordance with IMF requirements, Ukraine may gradually reduce tax benefits, including reforming the simplified taxation system, more strictly control income received through digital platforms, and transition to a more targeted model of social support. All these innovations are to come into effect only after the adoption of relevant laws, but the discussion about their content is already actively underway.
How possible tax changes will affect the labor market
Fintech expert and co-founder of Concord Fintech Solutions, Olena Sosiedka, believes that the steps proposed by the IMF could change the structure of the Ukrainian labor market and the format of self-employment familiar to many.
We are used to a large number of conditional "gray zones" on which part of small businesses and private sales relied. The new tax architecture effectively eliminates these zones, and the transition will not be painless. But without it, it is impossible to sustain the state in a protracted war. The state will try to reduce the volume of shadow incomes and make the financial system more stable during the war, so some schemes that have been the norm for many years will simply stop working.
In the coming months, the government will present the final text of the memorandum and relevant legislative initiatives. The reaction of businesses and how Ukrainians will feel these changes in their daily lives will depend on how carefully they are developed. At the same time, there is nothing revolutionary within these decisions – according to the IMF's logic, a country living in a wartime economy should collect more taxes itself, rather than relying solely on external support. But for households, this means very practical changes.
Tax on OLX
The greatest resonance was caused by the possible taxation of income received through digital platforms such as OLX, Glovo, Bolt, or Booking. In the information space, this was quickly dubbed the "OLX tax," although in reality, it is an attempt by the state to collect part of the income that has long ceased to be episodic and has actually turned into a business model.
I don't think the state is going to tax a person who sells an old bicycle once a year. The problem is different – tens of thousands of people who actually trade systematically, work without registration, without receipts, without taxes. The state can no longer afford not to see these turnovers.
What awaits individual entrepreneurs and small businesses if IMF requirements are implemented
No less tangible, if the memorandum is indeed implemented, could be the changes for businesses under the simplified taxation system. Bringing VAT to a single standard, strict criteria for determining labor relations, and the probable reduction of benefits for individual entrepreneurs – all this is already causing tension in the business environment. Some sectors, particularly IT, marketing, or creative industries, where the "individual entrepreneur instead of an employment contract" model was the norm, may switch to official employment with a full package of contributions. This means an increase in the tax burden on employers, and for employees – less "take-home" pay in the short term, but better social protection in the long term.
At the same time, micro-businesses: cafes, nail salons, small shops – will feel the reform perhaps the most due to increased administrative costs and accounting requirements.
"The most vulnerable are not large networks, but people who work for themselves and live essentially on a few orders a month. If they are simply 'forced into the white' without support and adaptation, some will either close down or go even deeper into the shadows. And then the shadow economy will not decrease, but only become more expensive for the state itself," says Olena Sosiedka.
Energy tariffs and subsidies
Regarding social support for the population, the IMF insists on abandoning broad housing subsidies and transitioning to targeted assistance. This means that tariffs for the population will move closer to market rates in the future. According to Olena Sosiedka, this is one of the most sensitive aspects.
The IMF does not aim to make tariffs high. It's about something else – the state cannot subsidize everyone indiscriminately. People who have sufficient income will have more direct responsibility for paying their bills. For vulnerable groups, effective targeted support needs to be deployed.
Changes in customs rules and online purchases
No less controversial is the reduction of the duty-free threshold for parcels from abroad. The mass segment of purchases on AliExpress, Shein, or Amazon will become more expensive, and the development of "gray" online trade will become much more difficult. In the long term, this could stimulate the development of domestic markets and equalize competition between imports and local sellers.
At the same time, all these changes will not appear instantly. Currently, Ukraine has an agreement at the IMF mission level, and the final steps will be defined in the memorandum and approved by parliament. However, the direction is already clear: reduction of benefits, fight against the shadow economy, targeting of aid, increase of the state's own revenues. Society will inevitably feel a rethinking of the economic model in which it has lived for many years.
Difficult years of transition lie ahead, but whether Ukraine will have financial stability sufficient for victory, recovery, and long-term development depends on how smoothly and transparently this period proceeds.