Russia could launch a new war against the Baltic states within two years after a potential ceasefire in Ukraine, as well as a "local" war against one neighbor within six months. This is stated in the report of the Munich Security Conference, UNN reports.
"For decades, Europe prospered under the umbrella of American security, allowing it to prioritize integration and prosperity over hard power. That era has ended. Moscow's relentless military and hybrid aggression has shattered illusions of lasting peace, and Washington's gradual disengagement has exposed Europe's lingering military shortcomings. A second Trump administration has made it clear that defending the continent and supporting Ukraine is primarily Europe's responsibility," the report says.
It is noted that the US also sends conflicting signals about the speed and scale of its withdrawal, as well as its overall approach to European security, oscillating between assurances, conditions, and coercion.
"This ambiguity has, psychologically, trapped Europeans between denial and acceptance. In their eagerness to keep the US in the European security order, they have postponed the more difficult task of preparing for a future in which the US will change its policy anyway. Russia's current aggression poses the 'most significant and direct threat' to NATO members and European security," the report adds.
It is emphasized that Putin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine destroyed Europe's cooperative security architecture and violated the norm of territorial integrity "in the most threatening and vivid way since the end of World War II."
"The war, entering its fifth year, has reached 'new heights of brutality and violence,' with Russia regaining the tactical initiative in some areas of the front. Despite staggering battlefield losses, devastating sanctions, increased Ukrainian strikes on Russian infrastructure, and growing international pressure for negotiations, the Kremlin shows no signs of abandoning its maximalist goals. (...) Its constant nuclear saber-rattling is only the most brazen reminder that the military threat extends far beyond Ukraine. Indeed, some intelligence agencies estimate that Russia could rebuild its forces for a 'regional war' in the Baltic Sea area within two years after a potential ceasefire in Ukraine – and for a 'local' war against one neighbor within six months," the report emphasizes.
Recall
According to the Munich Security Conference report, the world has entered a period of politics of destruction of the existing order. This is due to the fact that political forces that favor destruction are gaining momentum in many Western societies.