The European Union and India have concluded negotiations on a massive free trade agreement, dubbed the "mother of all agreements." The document provides for a significant reduction in tariffs on cars and wine from the EU and strengthens economic and political ties between the world's second and fourth largest economies.
The EU and India today concluded negotiations on a historic, ambitious and commercially significant free trade agreement, the largest such agreement ever concluded by both sides.
The agreement, it is noted, "will strengthen economic and political ties between the world's second and fourth largest economies at a time of growing geopolitical tensions and global economic challenges, underscoring their shared commitment to economic openness and rules-based trade.
The EU and India are reportedly already trading goods and services worth over 180 billion euros annually. And the agreement is expected to double EU goods exports to India by 2032, eliminating or reducing tariffs on 96.6% of EU goods exports to India. In total, the tariff reduction is expected to save about 4 billion euros per year in duties on European goods.
The free trade agreement between the European Union and India is much broader than just an economic document. It fits into the process of forming a strategic partnership amid profound changes in global geopolitics and geo-economics, believes Stanislav Zhelikhovsky, Ph.D. in Political Science, international expert.
Geopolitical context
According to the expert, negotiations on signing the agreement have been ongoing since 2007, but its activation was largely due to the new US policy and Russia's full-scale aggression against Ukraine.
Russia's military-scale aggression against Ukraine has changed many aspects of modern geopolitics and geo-economics. Another important aspect is Trump's new policy towards Europe. It is quite possible that the agreement would not have been concluded if not for these facts, and negotiations would have continued for a very long time.
It is important to note that India traditionally remains a partner of Russia, in particular, buying a lot of energy resources and military equipment. At the same time, New Delhi has been criticized by the Western world and the United States for these purchases.
New Delhi was criticized by the West because it continued to buy energy at reduced prices. India began to change its attitude and look for alternatives to Russian resources, although it continues to buy them.
Zhelikhovsky emphasizes that India pursues a policy of balancing between Russia, China, and the West. However, recently New Delhi has become more actively interested in partnership with Western countries.
The expert also notes that the EU is simultaneously strengthening ties with South American countries.
The EU is also looking for partners in South America - such states as Brazil and Argentina. In January 2026, the EU and the MERCOSUR bloc (Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay) signed a historic free trade agreement after 25 years of negotiations. This will create a market of 780 million consumers, reduce tariffs on agricultural products from South America and industrial goods from the EU.
Stanislav Zhelikhovsky emphasizes that the EU is actively trying to work with China, although this is associated with certain risks.
The EU works with China, but it is always a risk, because China has long supported Russia and has its own geopolitical interests. Here we need to balance very carefully.
Separately, Zhelikhovsky draws attention to the fact that the EU agreement with India also has a military-political aspect. He emphasizes that India, in addition to the economy, actively assesses defense capabilities and seeks a balance between different states.
India is interested in strengthening defense cooperation with Western countries. It is trying to find a balance so as not to depend entirely on Russia, especially in the military sphere.
The impact of Trump's policy on the agreement
Donald Trump's coming to power significantly changed the situation. Trump himself imposed tariffs, and Europe came under their pressure. This forced the EU to seek new economic alliances and support.
Stanislav Zhelikhovsky draws attention to the broader context of global economic and political competition.
The world is changing. Everyone is looking for allies and connections with states that were not previously considered allies, and, unfortunately, at some point, Trump's policy intensified these protests. We see the same thing in the example of Canada, which is looking for alternatives in the form of China. We see that agreements are now taking place between Ottawa and Beijing, and this greatly annoys the American president, although he himself provoked it.
What all this means for Ukraine
The expert assesses the consequences of the agreement for Ukraine as ambiguous.
India is a specific player. It has partnership ties with Russia, so it is impossible to say unequivocally that this is a positive signal for Ukraine.
At the same time, he notes that the EU, by concluding the agreement, is trying to gradually integrate India into its economic and political space.
The EU seeks to keep India close and pull it to its side, reducing dependence on Russia.
Zhelikhovsky adds that Russia can offer cheap energy resources, but in the long run, such cooperation is becoming increasingly unreliable, given Russia's toxicity.
The expert also notes positive aspects for Ukraine. In parallel with the global agreements between the EU and India, the issue of Ukraine's future integration into the European Union remains important for Ukraine. This can open up new economic opportunities, significantly expand the market for Ukrainian business, and contribute to the development of military capabilities through cooperation with partners.
If Ukraine becomes a member of the European Union, it will gain access to a much larger market and new economic opportunities. This opens up additional chances for business development, trade, and integration into the European economy. In general, for Ukraine, such agreements create both risks and opportunities.