U.S. President Donald Trump promised to pay every adult American $5,000 in “dividends” if Republicans retain control of Congress, but he is unlikely to be able to fulfill such a promise. In a comment to UNN, Oleksandr Kraiev, head of the North America program at the Ukrainian Prism Foreign Policy Council, said that Trump is forced to resort to populism ahead of the midterm elections, since amid falling approval ratings for both parties and the threat of impeachment, retaining influence in Congress is a matter of his own survival.
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During a speech at the Republican Party convention in Dallas, Trump promised to pay every adult citizen of the country $5,000 if the Republican Party retains control of both chambers of Congress following the midterm elections in November.
"If Republicans retain the House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate, then thanks to our incredible economic success… I will pay every adult citizen of the United States of America a dividend of $5,000," Trump said.
The president compared the proposed mechanism with companies paying dividends to their investors.
Trump did not specify details of the possible program, including its sources of funding, the payment mechanism, or the conditions under which Americans would be able to receive the money.
Trump promised $5,000 to every adult American if the Republicans win the election10.09.26, 07:44
As Oleksandr Kraiev noted in a comment to UNN, the proposal to pay $5,000 sounds unexpected as an electoral instrument, since this is not very common on the American political scene, but, according to him, the fact that Trump would engage in populism was quite expected.
"The reason is that he needs to show at least some result. He needs to show at least something to his Republican voter so that the voter can calmly vote for him. Hence these ideas about quickly resolving Russia's war against Ukraine, hence the ideas of quickly resolving something with Iran, hence the absolutely strange ideas of quick solutions to issues involving migrants. In other words, Trump needs at least something; he needs to demonstrate to his voter that he is still on top, that he is still powerful, that he can still resolve difficult issues. In other words, Trump needs something. And in this regard, this kind of socialist-style populism, which is unfortunately quite common in our parts but which we had hardly observed in America before, is now in favor; Trump needs it now, and accordingly, Trump is beginning to engage in it," Kraiev says.
Kraiev doubts that Trump will be able to pay the money to voters if Republicans win the elections.
"Will he be able to pay that money? Most likely, no. But in classic Trump fashion, in the end he will calmly say: 'Well, I did say I would do it; I didn't exactly promise... well, so you simply got it wrong.' Just as, by the way, he said about quickly ending Iran, just as he said about not starting new wars, just as he said about resolving the Russia-Ukraine issue within 24 hours. Every time he shifted it onto the same thing: 'Well, I was joking—what, you don't understand jokes?'" the expert adds.
According to him, Trump has problems because Republicans have very low approval ratings, but they are not as serious as it seems.
"Strange as it may sound, Democrats also have very low approval ratings. In other words, people are currently disappointed in both parties and in the system that exists. We will see how all of this is reflected in the elections, but the situation is actually somewhat paradoxical. But, as Trump himself told his fellow party members: 'Guys and girls, you have to win. If you lose, I will be impeached, and then we will lose absolutely everything.' In other words, for Trump this is a matter of his own political survival," the expert notes.
He emphasizes that the current forecast is that society will most likely see a divided Congress.
"We will see a House of Representatives that remains, or rather, becomes Democratic, with a narrow majority—but nevertheless becomes Democratic. And, most likely, we will see a Senate in which a Republican majority will remain, even if only by a few votes. Thus, Congress will essentially be taken out of the game, because two chambers controlled by different parties usually cannot agree on anything. Accordingly, if Congress is taken out of the game, Trump remains, so to speak, the sole proprietor of his foreign policy. His administration has already adhered to the idea of a single direction in foreign policy, led entirely by the president, and here, given that he very rarely asks Congress, so to speak, for support for his foreign-policy initiatives anyway—he simply presents them with the fait accompli that something is going to happen, issues an executive order, and proceeds on the basis of that executive order—it seems to me that, on the contrary, such a situation would suit him quite well. The only thing he needs is for the Democrats not to win both chambers. That would be a political catastrophe for him. Any other scenario would definitely suit him," Kraiev concluded.