The Danish Defense Intelligence Agency (FE) has published an updated threat assessment warning of a growing military threat from Russia. The analytical report notes that the scale of the threat will depend on the development of the war in Ukraine, as well as on the rearmament of NATO countries.
According to the worst-case scenario, in the coming years Russia may be ready for a regional or even large-scale conflict in Europe, UNN writes.
Details
According to intelligence reports, the military threat from Russia will increase in the near future, given the large-scale reconstruction and reform of the Russian armed forces.
Through 2024, these efforts have changed from reconstruction to intensification of military construction in order to be able to compete with NATO forces. Financial and material support from China, as well as support from North Korea and Iran with troops and weapons systems, respectively, are increasingly helping to free up resources for Russia's rearmament towards NATO
It is also noted that the real military threat from Russia still depends on the development of the war in Ukraine. This is because it is unlikely that the aggressor country will be able to simultaneously wage a war in Ukraine and a war with one or more other NATO countries.
In other words, if the war ends or freezes, Russia will be able to free up significant military resources and thereby increase its military potential to direct its forces at NATO countries.
In this case, according to FE, if Russia decides to send its army to the West:
- In about 6 months, Russia will be able to start a local war against any neighboring country.
- in about 2 years, there will be a real threat to one or more NATO countries and thus be ready for a regional war against several countries in the Baltic Sea region.
- There is a possibility that in 5 years it may be ready for a large-scale war on the European continent without the participation of the United States.
This development is expected if NATO does not simultaneously begin rearming at the same pace.
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Danish intelligence also warns of security tensions between Russia, China and the United States in the Arctic. Moscow has far-reaching plans for the region and wants to maintain its dominant position by expanding its military infrastructure and increasing troop numbers.
However, as noted, Russia is unlikely to attack Greenland and the Faroe Islands in a potential conflict in Europe if the United States is drawn into a war.